Saturday, January 1, 2011

Off-season rumblings and mumblings




Headliners



Jason Werth departs leaving a sizable, but perhaps not as sizable as you may think, hole in right field. Some mixture of Dom Brown, Ben Francisco, Ross Gload or John Mayberry Jr. is more likely than a signing or trade. While none of these players are the caliber of Werth, each one offers a legimate "baseball" option. Francisco could be a solid everyday starter in the mold of a Pedro Feliz or Aaron Rowand, players who hit in the clutch and while their play in the field wasn't spectacular, they played with heart and made all the plays they were supposed to. Manual has been quoted as saying he's comfortable with Francisco. Nicknamed the "Total Package", Brown looks a lot like a young Bobby Abreu. Toolsy, a doubles hitter with good speed and the tools to be a plus fielder (soft hands, rifle for an arm) Brown will be a wildcard this season as he battles for a job in spring training. Mayberry is a former #1 pick with a big bat and big potential who might just need an opportunity.



A possible upside to all this turmoil is that sometimes platoons can be effective. Afterall, Jason Werth who by the way, began his Phillies career as part of a platoon with Geoff Jenkins in 2008 didn't have a great year in 2010. A little over 100 runs, 27 homers, 85 RBIs is not some Babe Ruthian feat. Pete Incavalia & Wes Chamberlain combined to hit .272 with 36 homeruns and 134 RBI for the 93 Phillies.



Brown and Mayberry look to be the duo with the biggest upside; Brown is a .300+ hitter against right-handed pitching while Mayberry hit .296 against lefthanders in 2010; the two also posted decent power numbers, 23 for Brown, 17 for Mayberry. However, Brown is a project defensively and on the bases while Mayberry is simply "raw", even at 27, everywhere but with a bat in his hands. The more likely duo is Francisco and Brown with Gload as the fifth outfielder.



Cliff Lee returns to form one of the greatest if not the greatest 5 man rotation in the history of baseball on paper. The deal was finalized in the wee hours of the night and had a definite human rub to it (Lee took less overall money and years, the "don't break our hearts again," quote from Lee's wife). Lee loved Philadelphia and Philadelphia loved Lee; seems both the fans and Lee were heartbroken when Lee was traded.



Worth noting at this point, a trend in sports of big time players choosing championships (or championship potential) over money. See the NBA's Miami Decision & the Melo Dilema, see the NFL's Where's Brett Polooza and to a lesser degree the NY Jets - LT, Jason Taylor and Antonio Cromartie all were quoted as saying Rexpletive Ryan was a determining factor in their signing. Add to this Lee's Philadelphonic New York Yank and perhaps we are at the dawn of a new sports age of player built Dynasties. Considering the sheer absurdity of the modern athlete's contracts, we probably should have seen this coming.



Davey Lopez asked Management for mo' money and management said no. Lopes is now the first base coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies hired Juan Samuel, interim manager for the Orioles for 56 games this past season, to coach 3rd and shifted Sam Perlozzo to 1st. The Phils were tops in the league in baserunning efficiency under Lopez and his stopwatch. Perlozzo hasn't coached 1st since the early eighties. For a minor league team.  Although some may argue that baseball coaches have the least effect on the game of all the major sports (football, basketball, baseball), Lopez's effect was obvious and measurable. The Phils should have ponied up the dough-dough.Doesn't look like 



A side note to further the point. The Phillies pinch-hitters had a unprecendented year in 2008 on their way to the championship – Jimmy Williams was the bench coach that year. Seemed like at times, every move Charlie made was magic. Dobbers and Coste were magic. Matt Stairs and his moonshot in LA. The Phillies had 10 walkoffs that year. Two seasons ago, pinch hitters hit a savory .291 but came up average in the playoffs. We didn't notice perhaps because Howard and Co were bashing the cover off. Last year was by the Cartiac Kid standard sub-par. Pinch-hitters hit .252.


Chad Durbin is going to be signed although nothing is definite at this point and according to reports, Amaro and Dubin's group are still negotiating. Effective for the most part, pitcher's of Durbin's ilk are not exceedingly difficult to find. The requirement is simply to throw strikes. Clay Condrey held down the long man/6th-7th inning slot admirably a few years ago and most likely this will be spring training job. Amaro might look pick up a February bargain, but most likely, this role will be filled internally. Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley, Antonio Bastardo, Scott Mathieson , and last year's Rule 5 draft David Hernon are all possible candidates.




Sadly, Mike Sweeney will most likely not be re-signed. Sources report that Sweeney wants more playing time.



Jaime Moyer is planning to pitch again. In 2012!



"A lot of people have seen signs over the course of my career that I should quit or retire," Moyer told the Seattle Times"In all honesty, I just don't feel like I'm ready to give it up. I feel I'm entitled to make my own decision." In the meantime, Moyer said he plans to spend more time with his wife and eight kids. He added that he'll also have more time for the Moyer Foundation, a profound children's charity organization.




MARGINS



Phillies Draft 3 in Rule 5 draft. Amaro seems to be big on INF Michael Martinez.

Phillies also added five players from the minors to the 40 man roster. Freddy Galvis is probably the most major league ready and he's probably still a year away and doesn't project to be a full-time player. Should the Phillies get hit with the injury bug again, Amaro and Co. will be forced to wheel and deal. Expect a few February signings. Nick Punto should be available now that the Twins have signed Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka.


Phillies sent out Spring Training Invitations.


Names of note: Dan Meyer, a lefty specialist who had a solid 2009 for the Marlins, but struggled and was sent to the minors in '10. 


Tagg Bozied, a 31 year old slugger who at one time was considered the top power bat in the San Diego minors but suffered a freak Kendry Morales type injury in 2005, Bozied had big year at Double A and might be a Chris Coste type surprise out of Clearwater.



The Phillies Payroll for 2011 is currently 160 million. Up roughly 400% from a decade ago. For those Philly fans who are still not on board, this is the creamy pudding center. Proof positive that winning is more profitable than loosing and that perhaps the faceless nameless miasma of an ownership group are not so flimsy and spectarlike after all. Everyone loves a winner, especially the rich.

Projected Roster for 2011

Infield

Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Jimmy Rollins
Placido Polanco

Wilson Valdez

Additional infielders on 40-man roster: Brian Bocock, Freddy Galvis, Harold Garcia, Cesar Hernandez, Michael Martinez, Carlos Rivero, Matt Rizzotti

Outfield

Domonic Brown
Ben Francisco
Ross Gload
Raul Ibanez
John Mayberry
Shane Victorino

Catchers

Carlos Ruiz
Brian Schneider

Starting Pitchers

Joe Blanton
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
Kyle Kendrick

Others on 40-man roster: Drew Carpenter, Justin DeFratus, Drew Naylor, J.C. Ramirez, Vance Worley

Bullpen

Danys Baez
Antonio Bastardo
Jose Contreras
David Herndon
Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson)
Scott Mathieson

Others on 40-man roster: Sergio Escalona, Mike Zagurski