Hello Darkness, my old friend

Outside the Box: Chasing Dragons

Kenta Maeda SP (NPB)
Age: 26
Years Pro: 8

One of the top two pitchers in Japan, there are reports that Maeda may not be posted this off-season as a result of an a injury shortened, disappointing 11-8 year.  A closer look at Maeda's 2014 stats, however, reveal strikeout, BABIP and walk rates in line with his career numbers, so it's possible that the club owners are merely trying to maximize Maeda's posting fee.  The injuries may or may not have driven down Maeda's value.

Aside from a "disappointing" 2014 season, Maeda has been extremely durable and one of the top pitchers in the NPB for the past six years,  Just 26, the slight, wirey 6 footer lives off a live low-90's fastball, mixing in a quixotic change-up with snappy little swing and miss 84 mph slider. Not projected to have MLB ace upside like Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tananka, scouts project Maeda to be a solid number #4 today with the upside to be a solid #3 in a year or two.

Reuben Amaro Jr has reportedly been to Japan in person, and while a Maeda signing wouldn't necessarily be a franchise changer for the Phillies, it would be the first big move by a front office operating on Gillick's publicly stated we-won't-compete-until 2017 time table. So don't be surprised if the Phillies swoop in at the last moment, (when the market has settled) and make a big overmarket splash for a backend of the rotation guy.

Jung-ho Kang SS (KBO)

Age: 27
Years Pro: 10

After a breakout 2014 season which saw the twenty-seven year old Kang crank 38 homeruns in 107 games and throw up a .360/.463/.756 slash line, Kang's KBO club the Nexen Heroes will reportedly post the right handed hitting shortstop sometime in January.  The KBO's posting system is like the NPB's old system, that is, teams make blind bids for the right to negotiate with player for thirty days.

No one really knows how Kang's talents will translate at the major league level, but initial reports project anything from a stiff average to slightly above average bat-only option of the bench, to a super-utility 2B/3B/SS with 15 to 20 homer pop.

Regardless, Kang should be relatively inexpensive (he's making $400K now) compared to recent international signings and based on a simple eye test he sure looks like he has legit quick twitch power.

Chihiro Kaneko SP (NPB)
Age: 31
Years Pro: 9

You may not have heard of Chihiro Kaneko but the winner of the 2014 Sawamura Award had an eye opening year.  Kaneko threw three shutouts (along with a heartbreaking but dazzling no hitter) on his way to posting a ridiculous season line of, 16-5, 1.95 ERA, 9.4 SO/9.  No surprise to fans of the Nippon League, Kaneko's been dominant for over half a decade and sports a sparkling 2.69 career ERA and 0.6 HR/9  rate.  Intriguing as an over 30 prospect gets, the crafty righthander doesn't throw hard (88-90) but has seven pitches he throws for strikes.  

Kaneko's style and NPB numbers compare favorably with  Hisashi Iwakuma of the Seattle Mariners, and based on Iwakama's sucess (11.5 WAR in three seasons) it might make sense for the Phillies to sign this guy.  Especially if Kenta Maeda isn't posted.  

Injuries in 2011 and '12 along with Kaneko's age, could lower both the posting fee and contract.  Being a bargain might highlight Kaneko's pitchability and career arc rather than the limits of his velocity and upside.  Maybe one of the top five pitchers in Japan right now, Kaneko could be an attractive commodity to a franchise starved for Big League starters.  

While the story has been unconfirmed, Kaneko is reported to have visited the states and attended a World Series game while he was here.  The experience inspired Kaneko to take a shot a playing in America and he asked his team to be posted, The Phillies have already scouted scouted Kaneko as they seem to be checking under every proverbial rock this off-season.

Byun Ho Park 1B (KBO)

Age:

Years Pro:

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BIO:XXXXXXXX

Outside the Box: Carribean Dreams

Coming to a ballpark near you:

Rusney Castillo
Age: 27
Years Pro: 6

Represented by J-Z's ROC, Castillo appeared at his showcase 20 pounds stronger and put on a powerball show that may have upped his price-tag to Puig money ($40+Million or so).  A smaller guy at only 5'9, Castillo is not projected to have a super-star upside. Initial scouting reports tout a quick, line-drive swing with good loft, a good glove and plus plus speed.   MVP of the IBAF World Cup games in Panama, Castillo was considered a top-ten player on the island (after Cespeddes, Puig, and Jose Abreu left) and has drawn comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew McCutchen.

Is Castillo the next big thing or big flop?

Having already navigated his way through the murky legal maze of applying for MLB free agency when you're from Cuba (you have to establish residence in a second country and then be approved by MLB as well as Government to be eligible), Castillo is available right now and might be playing in September.

Go get 'em, Reuben!

Slugger Tomas may be too expensive

Yasmani Tomas
Age: 23
Years Pro: 5

 6'1, 230 pounds of svelte muscle, Tomas has an elegance to his swing that may command a commitment of 40+  Million.

Maybe not.

Tomas' Cuban league stats are only slightly above average, and at the most recent incarnation of the WBC, Tomas looked over-matched at times by pitchers with plus heat.

Scouts agree on Tomas's power potential but disagree on his approach and contact ability.  Some say he will start his career in High A while others argue a month in triple A and Tomas will be major league ready.

Whatever the case, Tomas defected in late June, so he still has to establish residency and be cleared by the MLB before he can even sign.  

The next Cuban Legend

Yoan Moncada
Years Pro: 2
Age: 19
A husky six foot one, two hundred pound switch hitting infielder, Moncada is the youngest player of the group at just 19.  This is the guy to sign (if Amaro signs any of them) Possibly a five tool prodigy who in high school and the Cuban League played all over the diamond, Moncada absolutely destroyed his competition in the 16U and 18U leagues.  Not a whole lot of video or Cuban League stats to look over, but the anecdotal comparisons and reports vary from flowery to jubilant.

Tantalizing a prospect as they come, Moncada's departure from the island is a little murky.  The story posted is that Moncada did not defect, but was granted passage by a Cuban government that seems to have shifted priorities.

That's the story anyhow.

95+ fastball

Jorge Despaigne (Wilson)
Age: 23
Years Pro: 5
Not a whole lot of information about this long, lanky 23 year old, Despaigne left the country sometime in June, so like Tomas, the Phillies (and the rest of the league) will have plenty of time to put together a solid scouting report.  When Despaigne left, he was considered one of the top young pitchers on the island, his fastball hovering in the mid 90's, but a weird mechanical issue (can't repeat delivery) will most likely lower his stock (and pricetag).



TRIED to defect once already:

3 time Cuban League MVP

Alfredo Despaigne
Age: 28
Years Pro: 10
A bonafide monster in his prime (only 28 years old) Despaigne is currently playing for the Chiba Lottes after receiving a lifetime ban from the Mexican League for obtaining illegal documents.  As this is the first year of a sort of loan agreement between the government of Cuba and Japanese club teams, it should be interesting to see what Despaigne does.

I have a feeling that after having destroyed both the Mexican League (.346/.407/.603) and the Nippon League (7 HR, 21 RBI in 22 games), Despaigne may still want to play in the Major Leagues at the end of the year.

The power potential could be an difference maker for the Phils immediately, so fingers crossed everyone.

NOT gonna happen:


Yuliesky Gourriel
Age: 31
Years Pro: 12
For the last decade, this guy has been the best player in Cuba and we, here at the Phorum, have held out hope (our outstretched hands) that somehow, someway, this five tool wunderkid would find his way onto a major league roster (we of course imagined Gourriel playing third for the Phils).  We've got high in the sky apple pie hopes, we admit it.  But, imagine for a moment, dear Philadelphia fan, the best player in Cuba since Omar Linares playing gold glove D alongside Jimmy and Chase, makes you wonder how many more f*#@ing World Champion banners would be hanging in Ashburn Alley.

In our sweet sweet dreams, dearest Philadelphia fan.

#1 Big Meany signed with Yokohama Bay Stars

This past off-season, the Cuban government changed the rules. Gourriel is 30, but still a top player on the island.  We said to ourselves (yes, we talk to ourselves.  We are ONE to begin with.  DUH!), Gourriel could be a franchise saver (evil slightly hysterical laughter).  YES! we said (more laughter).  To rule the world we must have a legit bat and glove (FINALLY!) from the right side. Our heartbeats quickened and we laughed some more (we laughted alot more really.  Dark evil tortured laughter in front of the mirror) and then the BIG MEANIE signed with a Japanese team and Amaro rolled the team into Spring Training looking like what they look like and we canceled our MLB subscriptions in late May settling for listening to the lulling play by play of radio instead.  Listening and lapsing into our fantasy baseball teams and hoping the year would end quickly.

Thanks for ruining baseball.  Yuliesky.

Ya big Meanie.

Outside the Box: Prologue

Though it may seem that Rome is burning to the ground, dearest Philadelphia fan, you must understand that this kind of agony is the price the baseball gods demand for success.  Of course this version of the Phillies is god-awful, just unwatchable at times but don’t fault your GM for this team (there's plenty of other stuff you can fault him for).  If you remember (and you should remember, it’s an important faculty, not just in baseball, but in life, remember the good things, remember championships,

Doc and Reuben in the good ol' days

remember that the harder the struggle the sweeter the victory), Amaro was a gunslinger and you rooted him on as he stacked aces on top of aces on top of his trio of perennial  MVP candidates.  A delicate tower, to be sure, but he was gunning for a ring - of course you’re gonna over-reach all over the place.

I don’t recall anyone complaining that the Phillies were too good, that Amaro should trade Jimmy Rollins for some big name prospects.  That oh no, we traded for Roy Freaking Halladay and then resigned him to a bezillion dollar contract.  There were no uproars of dear god, take him back or we just don’t want the the franchise to pay for the best pitcher in baseball.  Really?

Its hard to fault a GM who is winning now, and wants to keep winning now.  We want to win now.

Nonetheless, here we are now at an obvious and conspicuous crossroads (Ryan Howard is never going to be Ryan Howard again, we just need to accept that) and it may seem, Philadelphia fan as if you are going back, back to the bad old days, the Calvin Maduro and Rico Brogna days, the coming up just short days and playing fantasy baseball instead of actually watching the game days.  And like a man just released from prison, you cannot go back.  Will not!  We hear you.  We understand.  Rooting for a looser is an emotional deconstruction project.

JP Crawford is a five tool shortstop

It's possible that the rage and terror inspired by this years brand of baseball is entirely justified.  The anxiety of the bad philadelphia thoughts, do you think maybe 2007-11' was all just a beautiful dream? Do ya?  Was the beautiful new park and Gillick just some  circumstantial shooting star, the rare statistical outlier of ten thousand losses.

Did management merely stumble unexpectedly and blindly into a short-lived golden age?  Is it true that because we pelted Santa with snowballs and booed Mike Schmmidt (mercilessly) at the end that we have bullied the organization into a formless shiftless feckless blundering group of fools.  Not only are they unable to sustain or (tee-hee) prolong success but they are also fated to enact a series of catastrophic personnel and management mistakes dooming the organization to inevitable bottom-feeder status for the next fifteen years. Or.  Maybe. Ever.  They will be awful forever! (like the Cubs, only Philly is not lovable when they're loosing.)

Take a breath.  Its ok, Philadelphia. We know a quick glance through the minors is an exercise in darkness.  That (for God's sake its happening all over again!) there are only three real prospects, and that of the three, only JP Crawford has the look of special talent, and he's still in A ball.

The Phillies will once again be the Phillies, you say .  God-awful, underachieving, under resourced, under managed baseball chum.  Philly.com's Mike Sielski certainly thinks so.  Compelling stuff Mike. 

There's another possibility to consider.  Consider that the Phillies ownership has crossed a threshhold.  If 2014 is to have any meaning, maybe its this:  the paradigm has shifted.  That at the end of a championship run, ownership having tasted immortality is desperate for more and when the Howard contract is finally off the books, and Amaro is still around (hopefully a little bit wiser), the gunslinger GM will have enough gold to chase dragons in the Orient.  To take a lottery ticket out of Havanna.

THink that sounds craaa-zy!  Consider the other side of this contractual, aging player mess.  The proof is in the pudding, as they say.  Think about it; ownership was willing to dole out the Benji's and let Reuben play Russian roulette with the both the payroll and the minors trying to win another championship.  The boundaries have been broadened.

Castillo was impressive in Clearwater

Literally.  The Phils are reported to have worked out Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo.

Miguel Gonzalez, the Cuban starter turned reliever,is a tip of the cap to the new kind of thinking and comes from an intriguing, high risk reward player resource, a resource that if combined with a little drafting, some outside the box roster construction (per the A's and Rays anypostion super players and platoons) and a lot of baseball luck, the kind of quirky back to the 90's bunch could turn up in Pinstripes and we could be dancing down Broad again.

Or at least watching the games.

The resource: The international free agent market. (Guys from the KBO, Nippon and Cuban Leagues).  Yoennis  Cespedes, Yu Darvish, and Hyun Jin Ryu (all international free agents) are just the first of what might become a tsunami of near or major-league ready talent. The NFL and NBA have cut deeply into baseball's American market, and truly, sadly, baseball is no longer America’s first sport.  It is, however, played professionally on every continent in the world, because as you, yes, you, true fan of baseball know, baseball is a sublime, peaceful metric.  Something you may not know, a bunch of those other leagues play in big modern jam packed stadiums. 

Kajik Baseball Stadium (Lotte Giants), Seoul, South Korea

So, buck up, Philly fans.  After scouring scouting reports and game video from all over the globe (internet and u-tube), the Phorum compiled of list of players who are probably coming to ballpark near you and soon.

Hopefully a few of them play at the Bank.

Midseason gripings: how it used to be and other old timey tunes

Just about Midway through the 2014 season, the GM’s ring crazy farm hand sale has left the team with not only holes in the roster, but seemingly, the organization itself.  The very philosophy Gillick used to build a championship has been turned on its head.  The Bank was built for power and where Gillick tabbed the Jaime Moyers and Joe Blantons of the world allowing himself the financial versatility to gamble on players like Geoff Genkins, Freddy Garcia and Brad Lidge, to nab the So Taguchi's of the world midseason, as well as to stock his bench with gamers and veterans, Amaro has traded in (literally) depth for aging top-flight talent.  This might be where we find the true mark of Gillick's brilliance, where Amaro's inexperience comes into stark review.  In retrospect, we understand that the genius of Gillick was not in the big loud prime time moves (Freddy Garcia, Geoff Genkins, Flash Gordan) but in the smaller waiver wire pickups, the August trademarket, the Rule 5 draft, the lightest brushstrokes to fill out the roster. Gillick managed to harmonize the entire 40 man roster.  Each piece meaningful, and capable.

Amaro stuggles with the 25man active roster.

BACK IN THE GOOD OLDY DAYS...

Pinch hitters smacked a clutch .253 with a .759 OPS on the championship team.  This year’s version sports a .221 average which isn’t awful, however, tack on the .596 OPS, and you discover another philosophical bend.  An Achilles heel.  Aside from an astonishing lack of roster depth, Amaro’s teams don’t work pitchers and they don’t hit a lot of homeruns.

POWER AND PATIENCE

The personnel problem illustrated in this graph directly corresponds with the core group of Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ruiz’s career arcs, (obviously as they get older, their production declines).  Howard's decline in particular becomes startlingly obvious, though instead of adding youth and power at other positions to offset this decline, Amaro, limited by a bloated payroll, has been forced to take wilder and weirder gambles.  (John Lannan, Ben Francisco, Delmon Young, Mike Adams, ect)

NOT ONLY THAT BUT...

There’s also a question of scouting.  None of the prospects brought in by trades during Reuben's regime look today like MLB talent, not to mention, how the Phillies overlooked Brandon Moss and released him is about as head scratching a whodunnit as they come.

AND WHY FIRE CHARLIE? WHY?

So the Fightin’s are gawd-awful again.  So the GM has turned out to be a moron.  So the shiny new manager with the big shiny resume can’t get the team to play with any kind of shine (same old bad baserunning, same old bad bullpen issues, same old bad offense – they’ve been shut-out nine times already).

Go figure. Surely you didn’t think it was Uncle Cholley’s doing.  You still need big time players to win at this level and Manuel was concerned before the ’13 season started started.  Was dodging roster questions in that chagrined West Virginia draw of his.  Like he knew something you didn’t.   Almost a year from the date Manuel was dumped (ok not quite a year), and the cracks in our beloved baseball juggernaut have become fissures.  Have become canyons.  The idea that this team (as currently composed)  just needs to make a few minor moves or hire a new hitting instructor to regain their championship stride is pretty funny at this point, so, for those of you who are unable to watch the games because, quite frankly, they’re so goddamned awful, let’s do a quick recap.

WHEN CHARLIE WAS FIRED (teams record 53-67 .441 winning %): ,

1.  Bullpen a major, major area of concern to begin the season.  While Paplebon posts a decent year, set-up man Mike Adams is ineffective (3.96 ERA) and injured (only 28 games).  Frontman for the Mystical-Magical-Cliff-Lee-East-Coast-West-Coast tour Philip Aumont is wild and inconsistent.  And terrible.  Centerpiece for the  its-time-to-let-Victorino go-a-year-after-he-puts-up-MVP-type-numbers Ethan Martin is terrible.  He's-a-lefty-yippee-do-da farmhand Jeremy Horst alongside a re-signed re-branded “I can still hit 88MPH" Chad Durbin are spectacularly terrible.  The group posts eras of 4.19, 6.08, 6.23 and 9.00 respectively and as a unit end the season in the bottom five of the league in most of the major statistical categories.  (36% inherited runners score, 16 blown saves, ERA north of 4.50).

While building the bullpen has historically been a tricky little dance on the edge of a blade, if your looking to blame someone for a bad unit, you have to look at the GM. 

At times it seemed Manuel was just pouring gas on a fire when he strode out to the mound.

2. The self-imposed salary cap justified downgrading of the outfield continues as none of the starters from the championship team are still on the roster.   Ben Revere and Dom Brown put up some nice offensive numbers however, both players had trouble staying on the field and the statistical comparison to the ’08 team doesn’t need more than a cursory look to understand the disparity  (.769 OPS, 27 Homeruns, 100 RBI,  102 Runs in 227 games, vs ’08 Victorino/Burell .837 OPS, 47 Homeruns, 144 RBI, 176 Runs in 303 games) Toss in the considerable defensive downgrade from Victorino and Burrell (Brown/Revere: -15 RDS -Defensive Runs Save above or below average- Burrell/Victorino +7 RDS), and then top it off with the Francisco first, Mayberry Jr, Young for Werth wankjobber and you’ve got a huge hole in your team with rookies Cesar Hernandez (a career infielder) in center and Darin Ruf (a career First Baseman) stumbling around in right.   

Championship?  For this team that would be like saying Jerry Seinfeld is going to lead the Eagles to the superbowl.  Comic.  Tragic.  Utterly ridiculous.

Charlie squeezed as much juice as he could out of this group.  Stuck with Revere through the 0-fers and the month of being unable to hit the ball out of the infield.  With Dom Brown until he found the power stroke.

3. Who’s on third? Young, Ashe, Franco?   Er what the fudginheimer?

4. Oh my freakin gawd the bullpen stinks.

5. Worse baserunning team in baseball, maybe shoulda ponied up the pennies to keep Lopez directing at first.

6. Worse defensive team Philly has seen in almost a decade.

AND A YEAR LATER (Team Record since Firing 49 -60 .450 winning % (29-38/.427 % in 2014, Charlie .470 33-37/ through same period in 2013),

1. Bullpen is still a major area of concern.  Was awful in April and then mediocre and now pretty good.  Deikman and Giles are studs.

2. Dom Brown has fallen off the face of the planet.  Revere is having a decent year, but Jason Werth is absolutely mashing.  In Washington.

3. Who's on third, Ashe, Blanco, Galvis, Hernandez?.

5.  Worse baserunning team in baseball, maybe shoulda ponied up the pennies to keep Lopez directing at first.

6. Other than Rollins and Utley, they look worse than they did last year.

CHORUS

It may be a while before we see a winner in red pinstripes again.  Already a large portion of fan base has been swallowed up by that particularly Philadephian sense of impending doom and chronic frustration when the pre-destined doomed meet their doom and die their small pre-ordained sports deaths. Of doom.

What else is there to say.  Some girls are only happy when it rains.

Squinting Forward: the 2014 Phillies

So 2013 was going to be a wash too.  So Ryan never really got going, Doc wasn’t a phoenix in human form, able to rise from the ashes of his own baseball mortality, Chooch was never really healthy and the bullpen was god-awful.  It was always going to be a long shot season.  It was always going to be a transition year despite the GM’s track record of big bold moves and all that talk from ownership about winning championships.  Despite Charlie’s best Tony Robbins impressions. Despite the way management (Reuben Amaro) bungled letting Charlie go (How can you fire this guy like that?)

Turns out Mike Adams really did blow out his elbow.  Turns out the gritty big-time bat from Texas was more grit than bat.  And Delmon Young was the kind of signing you make when you whiff on a big time free agent class (Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Nick Swisher, Tori Hunter, Cody Ross, Ichiro Suzuki, and Johnny Gomes) and need to save face (remember all the talk about how D Young was a World Series MVP, number 1 pick and all that garbage).

           
The value of a 2013 was in its karmic balancing.  Being on top is an unfamiliar position for Philly fans, we get so paranoid, so burdened in our expectation, we forget how really, really difficult it is to play championship baseball at the highest level.  So here comes 2013 like a storm and blows the house down and we are left with our own hubris and a new manager and a bunch of life lessons (things like don't put expensive furniture in a house built a block from the beach, and Michael Martinez is not a major league baseball player for CHRIST'S SAKE!).

LIFE LESSONS: THE BAD
Being as Philly fans are so intimately accustomed to failure, we are after all the first and only sports franchise with over 10,000 losses, we gravitate first to the negatives.

Defense makes up for a lot of bad pitching and a lot of bad hitting and right now, the defense is disastrous.  From top to bottom, players were either unfocused or unable to make plays consistently.  As a team, the Phillies racked up a -12.4 DWAR, or using a more league comparative metric, the Total Zone Total Runs Fielded Above Average or, Rtot the Phils as a team were -31 runs.

Check those stats against a 2008 championship team that played highlight reel defense most every night, 7.0 DWAR and +41 Rtot, and the Phillies bloated ERA comes into focus.  AHA! (but you knew that if you watched the games, Rollins booting double plays, Brown taking the wrong route to simple fly balls, ect)!  KK and Lee are essentially ground ball pitchers.  Gotta catch the ball!

What goes up must come down, maybe the most difficult lesson from 2013,  Rollins no longer makes the bus go.

Chemistry is important.  Something that the Phorum has been warning about since his signing.  Jonathon Paplebon is a virus of self-importance and denial, he will spread (if he hasn't already) and cannibalize any urge to play with heart, any impulse towards comradery this team may have left.  On top of the fact that he's running out the meter with a fastball that sits closer to 90 than 95mph.

LIFE LESSONS: THE GOOD

There were good things as well:  

Dom Brown has some legitimate talent, no wonder Reuben didn’t want to let him go.

Cody Ashe could be a slightly more athletic version of a gritty aged Michael Young.  Will hit into fewer double plays and play third with slightly better range and speed.

Darin Ruf is a legitimate 25 to 30 homerun guy and plays with a lot of heart in the outfield but not much range or skill.

Ben Revere wasn’t completely terrible in center but is not, not, NOT a starter.  He’s a legit weapon off the bench though.   

Diekman and Rosenburg are legit 7th, 8th inning guys.

And finally, down on the farm, the Phillies are finally showing a heartbeat.  Maikel Franco and JP Crawford join the MLB top 100.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE:

We stand around for a while, after all, good-byes are awkward.  Most of the players who are going to throw another Broad Street parade are probably either buried deep in the minors or still playing high school baseball.  In the meantime, Ryan Howard and the gang will play out the string.  Ruf and Brown might bring a little edge to the Bank, but it is closing time and saying good-bye will be hard to do.