Thursday, February 20, 2014

Squinting Forward: the 2014 Phillies

So 2013 was going to be a wash too.  So Ryan never really got going, Doc wasn’t a phoenix in human form, able to rise from the ashes of his own baseball mortality, Chooch was never really healthy and the bullpen was god-awful.  It was always going to be a long shot season.  It was always going to be a transition year despite the GM’s track record of big bold moves and all that talk from ownership about winning championships.  Despite Charlie’s best Tony Robbins impressions. Despite the way management (Reuben Amaro) bungled letting Charlie go (How can you fire this guy like that?)

Turns out Mike Adams really did blow out his elbow.  Turns out the gritty big-time bat from Texas was more grit than bat.  And Delmon Young was the kind of signing you make when you whiff on a big time free agent class (Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Nick Swisher, Tori Hunter, Cody Ross, Ichiro Suzuki, and Johnny Gomes) and need to save face (remember all the talk about how D Young was a World Series MVP, number 1 pick and all that garbage).
           
The value of a 2013 was in its karmic balancing.  Being on top is an unfamiliar position for Philly fans, we get so paranoid, so burdened in our expectation, we forget how really, really difficult it is to play championship baseball at the highest level.  So here comes 2013 like a storm and blows the house down and we are left with our own hubris and a new manager and a bunch of life lessons (things like don't put expensive furniture in a house built a block from the beach, and Michael Martinez is not a major league baseball player for CHRIST'S SAKE!).

LIFE LESSONS: THE BAD
Being as Philly fans are so intimately accustomed to failure, we are after all the first and only sports franchise with over 10,000 losses, we gravitate first to the negatives.

Defense makes up for a lot of bad pitching and a lot of bad hitting and right now, the defense is disastrous.  From top to bottom, players were either unfocused or unable to make plays consistently.  As a team, the Phillies racked up a -12.4 DWAR, or using a more league comparative metric, the Total Zone Total Runs Fielded Above Average or, Rtot the Phils as a team were -31 runs.

Check those stats against a 2008 championship team that played highlight reel defense most every night, 7.0 DWAR and +41 Rtot, and the Phillies bloated ERA comes into focus.  AHA! (but you knew that if you watched the games, Rollins booting double plays, Brown taking the wrong route to simple fly balls, ect)!  KK and Lee are essentially ground ball pitchers.  Gotta catch the ball!

What goes up must come down, maybe the most difficult lesson from 2013,  Rollins no longer makes the bus go.

Chemistry is important.  Something that the Phorum has been warning about since his signing.  Jonathon Paplebon is a virus of self-importance and denial, he will spread (if he hasn't already) and cannibalize any urge to play with heart, any impulse towards comradery this team may have left.  On top of the fact that he's running out the meter with a fastball that sits closer to 90 than 95mph.

LIFE LESSONS: THE GOOD

There were good things as well:  

Dom Brown has some legitimate talent, no wonder Reuben didn’t want to let him go.

Cody Ashe could be a slightly more athletic version of a gritty aged Michael Young.  Will hit into fewer double plays and play third with slightly better range and speed.

Darin Ruf is a legitimate 25 to 30 homerun guy and plays with a lot of heart in the outfield but not much range or skill.

Ben Revere wasn’t completely terrible in center but is not, not, NOT a starter.  He’s a legit weapon off the bench though.   

Diekman and Rosenburg are legit 7th, 8th inning guys.

And finally, down on the farm, the Phillies are finally showing a heartbeat.  Maikel Franco and JP Crawford join the MLB top 100.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE:

We stand around for a while, after all, good-byes are awkward.  Most of the players who are going to throw another Broad Street parade are probably either buried deep in the minors or still playing high school baseball.  In the meantime, Ryan Howard and the gang will play out the string.  Ruf and Brown might bring a little edge to the Bank, but it is closing time and saying good-bye will be hard to do.