Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Midseason gripings: how it used to be and other old timey tunes

Just about Midway through the 2014 season, the GM’s ring crazy farm hand sale has left the team with not only holes in the roster, but seemingly, the organization itself.  The very philosophy Gillick used to build a championship has been turned on its head.  The Bank was built for power and where Gillick tabbed the Jaime Moyers and Joe Blantons of the world allowing himself the financial versatility to gamble on players like Geoff Genkins, Freddy Garcia and Brad Lidge, to nab the So Taguchi's of the world midseason, as well as to stock his bench with gamers and veterans, Amaro has traded in (literally) depth for aging top-flight talent.  This might be where we find the true mark of Gillick's brilliance, where Amaro's inexperience comes into stark review.  In retrospect, we understand that the genius of Gillick was not in the big loud prime time moves (Freddy Garcia, Geoff Genkins, Flash Gordan) but in the smaller waiver wire pickups, the August trademarket, the Rule 5 draft, the lightest brushstrokes to fill out the roster. Gillick managed to harmonize the entire 40 man roster.  Each piece meaningful, and capable.

Amaro stuggles with the 25man active roster.

BACK IN THE GOOD OLDY DAYS...

Pinch hitters smacked a clutch .253 with a .759 OPS on the championship team.  This year’s version sports a .221 average which isn’t awful, however, tack on the .596 OPS, and you discover another philosophical bend.  An Achilles heel.  Aside from an astonishing lack of roster depth, Amaro’s teams don’t work pitchers and they don’t hit a lot of homeruns.

POWER AND PATIENCE



The personnel problem illustrated in this graph directly corresponds with the core group of Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ruiz’s career arcs, (obviously as they get older, their production declines).  Howard's decline in particular becomes startlingly obvious, though instead of adding youth and power at other positions to offset this decline, Amaro, limited by a bloated payroll, has been forced to take wilder and weirder gambles.  (John Lannan, Ben Francisco, Delmon Young, Mike Adams, ect)

NOT ONLY THAT BUT...

There’s also a question of scouting.  None of the prospects brought in by trades during Reuben's regime look today like MLB talent, not to mention, how the Phillies overlooked Brandon Moss and released him is about as head scratching a whodunnit as they come.

AND WHY FIRE CHARLIE? WHY?

So the Fightin’s are gawd-awful again.  So the GM has turned out to be a moron.  So the shiny new manager with the big shiny resume can’t get the team to play with any kind of shine (same old bad baserunning, same old bad bullpen issues, same old bad offense – they’ve been shut-out nine times already).

Go figure. Surely you didn’t think it was Uncle Cholley’s doing.  You still need big time players to win at this level and Manuel was concerned before the ’13 season started started.  Was dodging roster questions in that chagrined West Virginia draw of his.  Like he knew something you didn’t.   Almost a year from the date Manuel was dumped (ok not quite a year), and the cracks in our beloved baseball juggernaut have become fissures.  Have become canyons.  The idea that this team (as currently composed)  just needs to make a few minor moves or hire a new hitting instructor to regain their championship stride is pretty funny at this point, so, for those of you who are unable to watch the games because, quite frankly, they’re so goddamned awful, let’s do a quick recap.

WHEN CHARLIE WAS FIRED (teams record 53-67 .441 winning %): ,

1.  Bullpen a major, major area of concern to begin the season.  While Paplebon posts a decent year, set-up man Mike Adams is ineffective (3.96 ERA) and injured (only 28 games).  Frontman for the Mystical-Magical-Cliff-Lee-East-Coast-West-Coast tour Philip Aumont is wild and inconsistent.  And terrible.  Centerpiece for the  its-time-to-let-Victorino go-a-year-after-he-puts-up-MVP-type-numbers Ethan Martin is terrible.  He's-a-lefty-yippee-do-da farmhand Jeremy Horst alongside a re-signed re-branded “I can still hit 88MPH" Chad Durbin are spectacularly terrible.  The group posts eras of 4.19, 6.08, 6.23 and 9.00 respectively and as a unit end the season in the bottom five of the league in most of the major statistical categories.  (36% inherited runners score, 16 blown saves, ERA north of 4.50).

While building the bullpen has historically been a tricky little dance on the edge of a blade, if your looking to blame someone for a bad unit, you have to look at the GM. 

At times it seemed Manuel was just pouring gas on a fire when he strode out to the mound.

2. The self-imposed salary cap justified downgrading of the outfield continues as none of the starters from the championship team are still on the roster.   Ben Revere and Dom Brown put up some nice offensive numbers however, both players had trouble staying on the field and the statistical comparison to the ’08 team doesn’t need more than a cursory look to understand the disparity  (.769 OPS, 27 Homeruns, 100 RBI,  102 Runs in 227 games, vs ’08 Victorino/Burell .837 OPS, 47 Homeruns, 144 RBI, 176 Runs in 303 games) Toss in the considerable defensive downgrade from Victorino and Burrell (Brown/Revere: -15 RDS -Defensive Runs Save above or below average- Burrell/Victorino +7 RDS), and then top it off with the Francisco first, Mayberry Jr, Young for Werth wankjobber and you’ve got a huge hole in your team with rookies Cesar Hernandez (a career infielder) in center and Darin Ruf (a career First Baseman) stumbling around in right.   

Championship?  For this team that would be like saying Jerry Seinfeld is going to lead the Eagles to the superbowl.  Comic.  Tragic.  Utterly ridiculous.

Charlie squeezed as much juice as he could out of this group.  Stuck with Revere through the 0-fers and the month of being unable to hit the ball out of the infield.  With Dom Brown until he found the power stroke.

3. Who’s on third? Young, Ashe, Franco?   Er what the fudginheimer?

4. Oh my freakin gawd the bullpen stinks.

5. Worse baserunning team in baseball, maybe shoulda ponied up the pennies to keep Lopez directing at first.

6. Worse defensive team Philly has seen in almost a decade.

AND A YEAR LATER (Team Record since Firing 49 -60 .450 winning % (29-38/.427 % in 2014, Charlie .470 33-37/ through same period in 2013),

1. Bullpen is still a major area of concern.  Was awful in April and then mediocre and now pretty good.  Deikman and Giles are studs.

2. Dom Brown has fallen off the face of the planet.  Revere is having a decent year, but Jason Werth is absolutely mashing.  In Washington.

3. Who's on third, Ashe, Blanco, Galvis, Hernandez?.

5.  Worse baserunning team in baseball, maybe shoulda ponied up the pennies to keep Lopez directing at first.

6. Other than Rollins and Utley, they look worse than they did last year.

CHORUS

It may be a while before we see a winner in red pinstripes again.  Already a large portion of fan base has been swallowed up by that particularly Philadephian sense of impending doom and chronic frustration when the pre-destined doomed meet their doom and die their small pre-ordained sports deaths. Of doom.

What else is there to say.  Some girls are only happy when it rains.