Monday, October 19, 2015

Phighting Irrelevance: Legion of doom? *under construction*

THE BULLPEN:

Of the many many many many many problems in 2015, surprisingly, the bullpen wasn't one.  Well , ok, we're not saying it was some legion of doom lights out goodnight sweetheart type bullpen, but, it wasn't the blazing tire fire that we thought it might be in spring training.

While Jonathon meathead Papelbon was here he turned in maybe the best performance of his Phillies career (on the field; off the field, he still said and did all kinds of ignoramus things) going 17-17 in Save opportunities, and posting a sub 2 ERA.   Ken Giles regressed, but only slightly and we knew that Giles wasn't going to best those 2014 numbers, that 0.788 WHIP and 12.6 SO9, Giles was good, dominant for stretches.  Jeanmar Gomez had a six week stretch of scoreless appearances and Dalier Hinojoso was a small sample samurai in the final month of the season.

Overall the group posted a league average 69% save rate (which in real life is awful, 16 blown saves) and the league's second worst inherited runners score rate or IRS at 33%.   The 25 and 23  win-loss mark is a bit misleading as the group didn't come into a whole lot of tie games or games with the lead.  The ERA (3.81) is a bit misleading as well as the group also posted a 1.433 WHIP.  Not good, but not completely horrific either.

We know, we know, we began this post by saying the bullpen wasn't a problem.  There are three or four solid to spectacular pieces already on the team is what we're saying.  The market's loaded and the Phillies have some real in house talent to boot.

The bullpen, out of all the issues facing the Phillies, could be the easiest (and quickest) to fix, is what we're saying.

There.  We said it.

It's been said.

PEICES IN PLACE

Projected Closer: Ken Giles
"I'm so freakin' awesome I think I might freakin' EXPLODE!"

The velocity on Kengo's fastball dipped and he had some early season control issues, but in 2015 Ken Giles was still gosh-darned NASTYYYYYYY-EEEE-EE-E!  2.13 FIP with a 11.2 SO9 rate.  Ya know who's ya daddy when this dude takes the bump.

So, yeah, maybe he brings the 1.80 ERA and that wipeout slidepeice back to the closer's role in 2016.  We're thinking, he's probably gonna be pretty good.  Maybe a guy to have on your fantasy baseball team, if your into that kind of thing.

Projected 2016 line: 2.09 FIP/11.0 SO9.  Saves 38 of 42 games, and pitches in 60+ to a 2.13 ERA

Projected 6th/7th inning guy: Jeanmar Gomez

Ok, so Gomez wasn't really a surprise.  C'mon, two years with the zen master Ray Searage.  A sinking fastball that can spill over into the mid-nineties.  A career ERA arc that had steadily been dipping in the 3's.  60 innings with a 3.01 ERA was a little better than expected, but you can't call it surprising.

Gomez is 28 and though he had that mid-season stretch of brilliance, it was more likely just a stretch of really good pitching rather than an indicator of future performance.  The league is constantly adjusting, and quite simply, there's probably not a whole lot of upside left to Gomez.  What you see is what you get.  Which isn't bad at all.  The Phils are going to need arms like Gomez.  Chad Durbiny Types.

So the Phils have one.

Projected 2016 line: Struggles early but then turns it on and ends up with a solid 3.25ish ERA over 65+ innings.

Next.
X-factor in 2016?

Projected 6th/7th inning guy/ spot starter:  Dalier Hinojosa

The other cuban pitcher Amaro aquired (snagged of waivers from Boston), Hinojosa features a fairly straight 94+ fastball that he likes to throw to either side of the plate and a late eighties cutter/slider that doesn't have great movement, but a pitch that has definite swing and miss potential.

Hinojosa posted so-so numbers in the Cuban League's and was so-so for Boston's AAA squad and then Phils AAA squad.  None of that means anything really.  Both of Hinojosa's stints in the minors were limited to less than 30 innings of work.  In Cuba, Dalier was a starter and had a fastball that sat in the low 90's.

All of that said, the Cuban could be very good for the Phillies in 2016 as a mid innings reliever or spot starter.  We project a solid to above average 90+ innings pitched with a couple of surprisingly good spot starts and an overall low 3ish ERA.

TO BE CONTINUED... (so, I have a day job that keeps me busy 60+ hours a week and because it's a restaurant, we are perpetually short-handed... which means I have to work more - I actually have to be at work right now - and have less time for awesome things like this blog).  Well, bear with me dearest and truest fan of the Phillies.

I hope to complete the post by this weekend.

Subjects still to be discussed:

-Adam Morgan's possible transition to the bullpen.

-A look at the free agent market

-A look at some in-house minor league options

-What the Phillies bullpen might look like in 2016



Monday, October 12, 2015

Phighting Irrelevance: The Arms race


Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in 2016, my dearest and most skeptical of all the fanbases in fandom, is that the pitching staff could be and should be remarkably better than the group of retreads and 2nd year starters that began the 2015 season.  Of course, MacPhail, Profrock and the mystery GM need to have a baller off-season, but, for the first time in a long time, the Phils have money to burn and lucky for them, the Free Agent pitching market is stacked for the next two years, both at home and abroad.

We shall gather in joy again soon, my most passionate baseball brothers and sisters

I see that skeptical yet adorable frown, dearest Phillies fan.  I'm well aware that we're trudging neck deep through, well, hypotheticals, but the idea that the Phillies might be capable of playing a winning brand of baseball by mid-June next season isn't as far-fetched as you think.

THE PIECES IN PLACE:

Starting Rotation

The Phillies have some real bonafide talent to build around mixed in with some obvious and serious depth problems.  Not the complete worst of problems to have (having aging talent that is about to fall off a performance cliff though you have no idea that your a) talent is human and susceptible to effects of injury and time, especially a combination of the two and b) you spend a bunch of money to keep those aging arms about to fall off, achilles about to snap, knees about to buckle talent - that would be a worse problem to have, wouldn't you agree?)

Thinking that you have something whilest having nothing vs. having nothing and knowing you have nothing.  SEE?  AKA wearing your Ruben Amaro Jr shades, versus looking at the team in the harsh, cold light of well, daylight.  Or any light really.  

Having such obvious holes allows the Phillies braintrust to see clearly and laser in on definitive roster upgrades.  And because of a bloated market and the walking dead being released, traded or beheaded, the Phillies are now flush with cash and can and should upgrade now rather than later.  Nola, Eickhoff and Morgan, while none of these three project to be an ace, they are all young, cheap, above average pitchers.   Remember, Remember the parade in October.

The Fightin's never won it all with Doc and Clifford, they beat the world with mostly a bunch of gritty #3 types.  Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton.  Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick.  Yes, they had an ace, but it was only Cole's first full swing through the league; the curve and cutter were still years away. (Remember when he was just a two-pitch wunderkid).  The rotation just needs to be solid, is all we're saying.  With an ace on top.
He's got that winner's shine

Aaron Nola:

PROJECTED #3 Starter

The 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Aaron Nola has been every bit the Michelangelo on the edges he was billed to be and he's turned out to be a pretty cool customer as well.  After getting shellacked by the Mets in his fifth start, Nola came back and 2 hit the Padres for seven innings and then 3 hit the Marlins for eight innings.

If not a true number 1, some baseball insiders think Nola's plus makeup elevates his ceiling to a 1A or a Super 2   While we here at the forum tend to eschew hyperbole (NO WE DON'T!!!), Nola's bewitching pitch dance to either side of the plate, and just plain grit, are a reason to think the Phillies might have something special here.

Nonetheless, Nola is going to have some struggles in 2016.  He pitches in the strikezone and doesn't have overwhelming stuff. There might be stretch or two where it looks like he's tossing BP up there, and honestly, depending on how Nola, like many of the young players on this list, makes his way through those stretches will largely determine what kind of pitcher the Phillies really have on their hands.

We project a 14-10 guy with an ERA right around 3.75.

Jerad Eikhoff
Had back to back 10k performances

Projected #4 Starter

Eickhoff, a 25 year old right-hander with a big frame and long smooth delivery, was drafted by Texas in the 15th round of the 2011 draft.  Largely unheralded, the Indiana native had a mostly up and down run through the minors posting a career 4.14 ERA, 1.211 WHIP and weakish 7.4 SO/9.  However, in 2014, Eickoff might have had a 'eureka' season.  Though he posted a mediocre 4+ ERA, a deeper look into the numbers reveals a career best 8.4 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 1.173 WHIP over just about 160 innings.  Projected as a backend of the rotation or bullpen guy before and during the trade, Eickhoff's 11 starts since being traded to the Phils have been eye-opening..  Not only has Eickhoff continued to pitch to his 2014 numbers but he has been better in the bigs, posting a 2.3, 8.6 walk and strikeout per nine rate alongside a miserly 1.039 WHIP.

Nice numbers for sure, you say, but SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!!  Jerome Williams had shiny numbers for eight starts and that turned out horribly.  HORRIBLY, you say.  Which is true and Williams was indeed so scary bad this year that MacKanin banished him to the clubhouse (bullpen) only to be summoned when no one in the ball park was looking (blow-outs).

There are a lot of differences here but the main one is simple.  Williams was old when the Phillies picked him up (32) and coming off three consecutive seasons of 6+ ERA's.

Eickoff on the other hand is young (25) and though he has some obvious problem areas he needs to work on, those problems (his fastball location as well as the break and tilt of his changeup) are fixable.  With the right usage and coaching, Eickoff might be an above average #4 right now with a ceiling as high as a solid #3.

Look for 18+ Quality Starts in 2016 from the Cole Hamels "throw-in".  A half dozen or so really special starts, maybe an eight to ten game run like the one we just saw, but expect Eickoff to post an ERA just a tick over or under 4.  The fastball is extremely hittable and lefties are going to be a problem until he develops his change-up.


Adam Morgan

PROJECTED #5 Starter

A big-time prospect not so long ago, Morgan was drafted by Ruben in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft.  A rotator cuff knocked the wirey left-hander off the prospect radar and well, quite frankly, he just didn't pitch that well when he came back.  Ok, truth be told, we don't particularly care for Adam Morgan (not as a starter), and a glance over his minor league career and the statline he put up in 2015 and there's not a whole lot to love.  Sorry bud, but a fly-ball pitcher, with so-so strikeout stuff doesn't do a whole lot for us.

There is a silverish lining, however.  Though Morgan doesn't throw very hard, he changes speeds well on all of his pitches, has a nice three pitch mix and locates well (or not at all, in which case he throws his not very fast kinda straight fastball right smack dab down the middle of the plate - in 20% of his starts he gave up 5 runs+).

Oh right, silver lining.

He does seem to have a grit and grind to him though, and he's tough with men on base (71.6% LOB).

Finally, the left-hander bounces back well from bad starts (six innings of four hit ball against the Padres after the 4 homerun bludgeoning by the Mets). This pitchability, the poise (even when he was getting shellacked, Morgan seemed calm and cool) right now will usually get you through 6 innings and at 25 years old, Morgan's still got some upside.

8 of his 15 first big league starts have been Quality Starts, good for 53%.  The league average is 50%.  It would be nice to shift Morgan to the bullpen (where he belongs and where not for nothing, the control and three pitch mix and poise would really play up - velocity would probably tick up as well) but having Morgan at the back end of the rotation isn't bad way to go either.  We predict Morgan has a Randy Wolf-esqe season in 2016, 12-10, 4.17 ERA, 16+QS.

Or, perhaps as a final act of roster savaging, the kid's arm falls off during a start in mid May.  Somewhere in the distance, Ruben Amaro Jr. laughing, sad, the vanquished, setting fire to the building as he goes.


ORG DEPTH

There's an old baseball adage that you need a starting 8 to get through the rigors of a full 162 game season and as such we take a look at the names that are probably going to make 20 to 30 starts in 2016.

Alec Asher - AAA What you see is what you get. (And we saw it).  Phils need to upgrade here
Matt Harrsion - DL - You may not remember, but Matt Harrison pitched some big games for some good Rangers teams back in the 00's. A serious longshot (back injuries and tall pitchers don't usually make for good comeback stories) but Harrison is only 30 and an All-star as recently as 2012, it wouldn't be completely surprising for the salary dump guy to roll out of spring training with the big league club.  Probably in that scenario, the number two guy.  Keep an eye on this big left-hander's progress in spring training.
David Buchanon AAA- Buchanon pitched well for stretches in 2014 but the wheels came off in 2015.  Pray to the baseball gods that Buchanon starts the year (and stays) in AAA
Severino Gonzalez AAA - Gonzalez is an interesting player to keep an eye on if only to pray that his name doesn't show up on the 25 man roster.  While still young, 23, Severino was obviously and horrifically overmatched in his 7 big league starts.  Glance over his minor league stats and you see he's been kinda horrific for a few years now. Phils need to upgrade here as well.
Jake Thompson AAA -  Thomson's a name that you're going to hear a lot over the coming winter.  A lot.  A Hard throwing righty, this guy could be an in-house upgrade, bolstering the triple A rotation and providing 10 to 15 starts late in the year.
Franklyn Kilome AA - Another hard throwing righthander that you're going to hear a lot about over the coming winter.  Kilome looked a little green to us, and probably won't crack the big league rotation in 2016, but he might be an interesting ace in the hole type option out of the bullpen ala 2014 Brandon Finnegan.


WHAT THE PHILLIES NEED

Obviously, MacPhail and Co amongst the myriad of other holes in the roster, need to find a way to either sign or trade for two top of the rotation types.  Guess what Phillies fan!

The free agent market is loaded!!  For the next two years!!!

The Phillies also still have a few tradeable assets left (Darin Ruf, Dominic Brown, Carlos Ruiz) but my guess is that the mystery GM targets 2nd tier types and 2nd tier types coming off injury plagued years or bounce back candidates.

Chris Young, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, ect.  Smart two-year contract guys with a solid floor and a maybe little bit of ceiling.  Hopefully, the days of John Lannan and Chad Billingsley, Jerome Williams, ect are behind us.

OUR PROJECTED 2016 STARTING ROTATION

1. Hisashi Iwakuma/Jeff Smardszija
2. Matt Latos/Brett Anderson/JA Happ
3. Aaron Nola
4. Jarad Eickhoff
5. Adam Morgan


Monday, October 5, 2015

Week twenty-five wrap-up: Playoff consolation game: no consolation for the heartbroken

TEAM WHODATS                    441
ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS     335

Finishing in fourth hurts.  Hard.  Deja Vu all over again as the lineup was spectacularly bad and I took some serious missteps on the waiver wire.

Lineup:  The lineup was mediocre to wretched posting a total of 150 points.  Yikes.  Granted last weeks loss was so devastating I couldn't make myself even log in to my account until late Tuesday afternoon. As such I missed a 7 point Monday from Kendrys Morales.  Didn't make many waiver wire moves and the two moves that I did make netted a big fat -1.

The big stinkers for the week: Anthony Rendon (-4), Josh Reddick (4), Ender Inciarte (5), Ben Zobrist (9) and Buster Posey (4).  Rendon was absolutely gawd-awful with three hits and ten strikeouts in a full seven games, the others missed multiple starts because of either injury or their respective team was no longer in contention, or had their playoff spot wrapped up.  Regardless, what began the year as a bad lineup ended the year as a bad lineup.

Pitching:  the pitching staff was better than last week, but still way off the design threshold, posting a total of 185.  The bullpen was shaky once again, with Osuna (-5), Axford (3), Rosethal (7) and Ken Giles (5) all having off weeks.  King Felix didn't pitch at all, but the my waiver wire picks weren't horrible with 10 of fourteen posting starts of 14+.   Unfortunately the other four starts were a combined -31. Chris Heston (-16) and Roenis Elias (-12) being the big missteps of the week.

Conclusion:  Both the lineup and the pitching staff were bad so its hard to find one particular thing to point to and say, hey, if I fix that, I can roll into next year with a better team. Then again, I didn't start playing in earnest til Wednesday, so perhaps, next year, don't wait til the middle of the week to start playing.


FINAL LEAGUE STANDINGS

RANK
TEAM
REC
PF
PA
PF/G
PA/G
DIFF
1
14-8
7889
7156
358.6
325.3
+33.3
2
12-10
8139
8494
370.0
386.1
-16.1
3
13-9
8620
8026
391.8
364.8
+27
4
16-6
9075
8109
412.5
368.6
+43.9
5
10-11-1
7705
7815
350.2
355.2
-5
6
12-10
8156
8004
370.7
363.8
+6.9
7
9-13
7588
7734
344.9
351.5
-6.6
8
8-12-2
7666
8007
348.5
364.0
-15.5
9
8-13-1
7696
8110
349.8
368.6
-18.8
10
6-16
7304
8383
332.0
381.0
-49


Thursday, October 1, 2015

Phighting Irrelevance: to 2016 or to not 2016


Much has changed (finally) over the course of another brutual brutual season my longsufferingest.  (And lets's be honest, there's still a lot of change to come) The change has ranged from unexpected, (hello Ryne Sandberg throwing away any chance of ever managing in the majors again) to heartbreaking, (Chase Utely, you will always be the man) to necessary (god speed and good riddance to Jonathan "the posting uppingest" Papelbon - Go suck the winner's soul out of somebody else's championship dreams there buddy).

It's so weird seeing them in blue
Cole Hamels was rightly flipped for a King's ransom, and Ruben was finally released from his burning tower.  Perhaps most importantly, once again (as the team did in 2006) the ownership sought a voice from outside the organization (this is good wonderful news Philly fan), Andy McPhail, to be chief bloodletter as the team goes through the pains of the rebuilding process.

Interim turned full-time manager Pete Mackanin becomes a remarkably important and interesting character in this, the first chapter of transition.  Having lived on the fringes of pro baseball for 45 years both as a player and a coach, MacKanin just might have the right underdog's sense of humor and grit to guide a young, eccentric group through some difficult growing pains.  He's passed the eye-test as the team played a winning brand of hustle and heart baseball for long stretches after the all-star break.

This is all great news, you're saying, but when are the Phillies going to be good again, you say, Andy MacPhail can't hit 50 homeruns from the four hole, you say, and play gold glove 2nd base and center field, you say. Pete MacKanin can't magically summon three or four starting pitchers-you silly goose, you're saying- to fill out a rotation.

Yes, slightly hsyterical and sarcastic Philly fan, your logic is as always, impeccable. Truly, executives at the age of 65 can't dominate the playing fields at the the highest level of professional baseball or field two positions simultaneously, and you are correct again in noting that the manager Pete McKanin is indeed not an all-powerful warlock capable of conjuring flesh and blood from the secret invisible magic ethers of the universe but simply a human man.

Hey Charlie,..Got any more of that secret universe juice? er..ahh.ether?
Well...

Well, I'm taking note of your sincere doubt and misplaced anger and well, ignoring it completely and focusing on the possible next nucleus.  Focusing on what the next championship team is going to look like.  It feels a bit like 2003 all over again.

There's reason for hope here dearest Phillies fan.  Amidst the stink and debris that was 2015, (woah, careful there, when you move around Cliff Lee's tarnished aura, you have to watch out for Ryan Howard's broken swing), but here look some kid named Brock Stassi was leading the double A phillies on deep run into the playoffs.  And that double A team is loaded!

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has the look of the real thing (6-2, 80.4% LOB, 3.58 xFIP) and  Odubel Herrera (3.9 WAR) and Maikel Franco (128 wRC+) blossomed into serious everyday starters.

This guy just won the Eastern League MVP and he plays for the Phillies!
The Fightin's are close is what we mean to say, and we'll walk you through the entire depth chart to show you how close (or far) the Phillies might be to contending in 2016.