Monday, August 27, 2018

August Fantasy Tips: Stretch Run Stars

Ok, fantasy baseballers, the Phils have fallen into what may be a season ending slump - literally.  Post-season feels more and more a like another Odubel Herrera at bat, an excruciatingly cruel joke, but you, you fantasy baseball god are at the top of your division, heck, League!

Time to bring home the bacon baby.  The Phorum offers you 3 solid options to plug up those pesky lineup holes you may have heading down the stretch.


Billy McKinney (OF) Toronto Blue Jays - 2.2% ESPN Leagues

Last 7/Ave: 25/4.2
Last 7 AllPlayers Rank: 15th
Last 7/OF Rank: 8th

McKinney might be the player with the most upside on this list.  A first round pick (24th overall) the scouts lauded as the best high school bat in the draft, and a kid with plus baseball instincts and then a long time "big-time" prospect, McKinney is still not a sure thing.  He had an up and down minor league career and was prone to streaks.  Still, a guy who Aaron Boone said puts great at bats together one after the other one, has at times flashed an intriguing combination of power, speed and plate discipline.  Playing time may be an issue in an already crowded Jays outfield, but if McKinney keeps hitting the way he is (.333 with 4 dongs in his first 11), it's the Toronto Blue Jays, they're roster building for like 2022.  Perform and playing time shouldn't be a problem. 

Check this out, McKinney is 23 years old and has been traded 3 times.  We think he plays like a guy who has something to prove and then proves it. In your face naysayers and people who say stuff that's dumb about baseball players even though they have no idea what they're talking about cause they're stupid. Ha-ha! In yo face, bee-yotch! Yeah.  This guy plays like that. 


Ji-Man Choi (1B, DH) Tampa Bay Rays - 0.3%

Last 7/Ave: 20/3.3
Last 7 AllPlayers Rank: 36th
Last 7 1B Rank: 7th

Choi is a bit like last month's Astudio pick - probably not going to put up the numbers we think he should (because of playing time issues not AWESOMENESS issues), but we love him and keep rooting for him because he's a bit of an outlier.  Namely, his strikeout and walk rates as he made his way through the minors are indicative of an elite bat to ball skill-set. 

That the power has never really materialized for a guy his size - 6'1 235, and that this 'prospect' is 27 do not, to us, indicate the usual negative prognostications about Choi maybe doing something else with his life, but rather these things to us, just mean this dude is due.  The 15 homers over an 88 game stretch in 2017 with the Yankees Triple A team.  Overdue. 

Not to mention, this could also be another guy who might play with an edge.  Been traded four times.  27 years old and all that noise, and now, finally, baseball justice.  Right, because, c'mon, Tampa Bay is a Weird smallmarket Baseball bizzaro world.  Some people think the "Shift" started there, I mean, its a place where catchers pitch and closers start games.  This year the team is managed by a guy named Cash.  Weird baseball ironies, right?  Maybe not so weird after all, and maybe Choi finds some playing time, then, presto, told-ya-it-was-gonna-happen here-o, finds that power stroke too. 

Phillp Ervin (OF) Cincinnati Reds - 4.6% ESPN Leagues

Last 7/Ave: 22/3.1
Last 7 AllPlayers Rank: 24th
Last 7 OF Rank: 14th

Ervin isn't quite as interesting as either Choi or McKinney, but he may be the one who is ultimately the most productive.  A 26 year old semi-fringey prospect fighting for a roster spot on a really bad obviously rebuilding Reds team, you may be asking.  Whoopdeefriggindoo! you might be whispering under your breath.  Or saying out loud. 

Well, heck, yeah, we say.  And also, quit mumbling, we say, you look like a troll.  We say, Ervin has the look of a guy in the middle of a career/break-out season.  Prior to being called up he'd hit 4 home-runs in his last 10 games and was pushing an OPS north of .950. Plus there's like literally no one left to play outfield for the Reds other than Billy Hamilton and while Hamilton is really really fast, he probably can't actually cover the entire outfield, so here we have Phillip Ervin. 

He's batting out of the 2-hole.  Go Reds!

Thursday, July 5, 2018

July Fantasy Tips: The Three Available Bats Most likely to go Muncy

In what has been the one of the weirdest seasons I've ever seen, we're sticking to our roster design guns, namely, seeking value in the margins.  Guys who don't strikeout a lot and/or guys with an almost 1:1 SO/BB ratio.

While most of the rookies who have impact bats are already established and rostered, there are a few youngsters just starting to click  and mid-level guys with retooled swings out there floating the waiver wire.

Jesse Winker (OF) Reds - 10% ESPN Leagues

Last 30/Average: 83/3.3
Last 30 AllPlayers Rank: 24th
Last 30 PositonOF Rank: 8th

Winker had a solid debut in 2017, starting hot, then cooling off and then picking it up again the final few weeks of the season.  A 15:24 Walk/Strikeout Ratio plus 7 home-runs in 124 Plate Appearances put Winker on our fantasy radar for 2018.  However, an absolutely horrendous start and spotty playing time seem to have diminished Winker's 2018 shine in considerably, probably the reason why so many leagues still have this guy available.  In the past six weeks, however, the left-handed outfielder has found both a full time role and his power stroke, peaking with 53 points in the past 15 games.

We think this most recent power outburst is the real thing, and an outstanding 43:40 Walk to Strikeout Ratio for the season points to a solid 10-12 points-a-week floor, the recent burst evidence of 35+ point potential.

Willians Astudillo (C) Twins - 1.6% ESPN Leagues

A horribly gone wrong season for the poor ol' Twinkies has opened up playing time for a guy with one of the most interesting skill-sets in recent memory.  Simply, Astudillo (who played in the Phillies minor league system by the by) almost never strikes out.  Over 8 minor league season, Astudio has a 3.2% Strikeout Rate.  The knock on Astudillo has been that he doesn't hit for power (or walk).

Well, in a year of obvious evolution, something seems to have clicked , and while it may be unreasonable to expect the walks to come for a guy with elite contact skills, a .517 slugging mark over the past two seasons in Triple A may be evidence of a swing plane break-through and makes sense in the year of Max Muncy and Nick Markakis.

So, player doesn't strikeout - check - player who hits for power - check.  You can see the 10-12 point a week baseline.  There's potential for maybe a 25 point ceiling.  The real value here is that not only does Astudillo play catcher (which is really, really valuable), but he plays all over the diamond with the exception of maybe shortstop.  Why is this important, you ask, well, in a league where teams increasing  lean on a catching battery of two, Astudillo with his positional flexibility (as the writing of this article, Astudillo had played all three outfield spots, as well as 2B and 3B) looks to get five to six starts a week.


Yohan Carmago (SS, 3B) Braves - 11.2% ESPN Leagues

Last 30/Ave: 67/2.8
Last 30 AllPlayers Rank: 60th
Last 30 SSPlayers Rank: 12th
Last 30 3BPlayers Rank: 16th


Carmago had that baller spring, if you remember, and was being spoken of in the same hushed breath as uber-prospects Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna.  Baseball is a fickle mistress however, and while Carmago started the season on the DL, Ryan Freakin' Flaherty came out of nowhere and hit like .600 for the first month while Carmago came back and scuffled (through May 31st, Carmago was only hitting .221 with 4 home-runs).  The buzz on Carmago died down and Ryan Flaherty came back to earth and the Braves tried out an over the hill Jose Bautista, which failed pretty miserably and then, Carmago started hitting again.  (.294 with another 4 home-runs since June 1st).

While Carmago strikes out a little more than we prefer, he did run a .374 On Base those first few rough months, and has continued to walk at a solid .350+ rate.  Playing alongside the re-invented re-invigorated Nick Markakis, the ever stalwart Freddie Freeman as well as Acuna and Albies, Carmago is in a pretty sweet spot and looks poised to continue his breakout season.

I don't see Carmago with as high a ceiling as Winker, but 30+ points is reasonable, and we've already witnessed the 10-12 point floor (April-May).

Monday, June 4, 2018

June Fantasy Tips: Bullpen Helper - Three Guns to Holster

If you don't have your full complement of seven closers, fear not, dearest and most resilient Fantasy Baseball Genius.  Here are three arms most likely to be available (and dominant) in your league.

You are welcome, my friend.

Kyle Barraclough (RHP) Marlins - 10.5% ESPN Leagues

Armed a big fastball he can run up to 98, and two plus off-speed offerings, King B looks like he's finally putting it all together for a wretched Marlins team this year.  1.48 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP regardless of the standings looks like dominance.  Odds are this guy is closing if not within the next few weeks then by the trading deadline at the latest.  A strong 25.3% Strikeout Rate means points regardless.

Worth rostering if you are running a closer short.  Worth keeping an eye on should he win the closer's role in Miami, regardless. Potential to a post top 5 closer points.

Seranthony Dominguez (RHP) Phillies - 7.8% ESPN Leagues

Philles manager Gabe Kaplar made a trip to Double A to see this guy and for good reason.  The 98, 99 mph fastball and a 92 mph frisbee slider thingie are un-hittable.  Factor in the obvious; Hector Neris has been god-awful for almost two full seasons now, and despite Kap's new agey-ness in regards to the bullpen, it's almost always smartest to save your best arm for the last three or four outs.  Dominguez will get his shot, and has the potential be a top 10 closer for a contenting team. Worth rostering right now.


A.J. Minter (LHP) Braves - 8.3% ESPN Leagues

A left-hander who touches 102, and throws a plus, plus slider-cutter at 92, it's not surprising that  Minter has drawn comparisons to Billy Wagner.  The comparisons aren't completely off base as Minter's two-pitch mix was dominant in the minors and has him posting a healthy 21.4% Strikeout Rate in the Show.  There's a few flies in the ointment however, which make Minter worth watching but not necessarily rostering.

Number One, the most obvious is that Minter is pitching for a playoff team and they already have a really really good closer.  Number Two, Minter's stats aren't completely overwhelming.  The strikeout rate is decent, but not great, especially considering a 5.2 BB/9, a 3.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.  Without the saves, Minter could very well play as a liability.

That said, Minter has the stuff to not only close, but dominate, is second in line and Arodys Vizcaino does have a history of getting hurt, so keep on eye on this guy.


Friday, May 18, 2018

Mid-May Fantasy Tips: Fighting through Injury, Suspension and Weird Baseball Randomness - Three stop-gap bats to keep the ship a' sailing

Lost Robinson Canu, or Paul DeJong?  You've got Matt Carpenter and Anthony Rizzo in the deepest slumps of their careers.  Or is there some other random, wierd, baseball phenomenon ruining your year of DOMINANCE!?!?

No worries my dear friend, here are three Bats to keep you rolling along.


David Dahl (OF) Rockies - 24.8% ESPN Leagues

An uber prospect for what feels like the past decade, Dahl made his debut in 2016, posting an eye-popping a .315/.379/.500 in 63 games.  Unfortunately, almost all of 2017 was lost to injury, so coming into 2018, the lefty hitting out-fielder had something to prove in spring training (and did - .915 OPS, along with 5 Homeruns and 18 RBI in 66 Plate Appearances), but a surplus of big league contracts in the Rockies outfield meant Dahl was the odd man out and would have to wait for poor performance or injury.

He didn't have to wait too long, Dahl joined the team in late April and has done nothing but mash since the call-up .295/.355/.509.  A SO% of 35 is unacceptable but most likely the oft-injured outfielder is pressing for a permanent role when the starters return from injury.  Nonetheless, if you can pick Dahl up now, he's hot, posting nice numbers and if he can stay healthy (and the Rockies can figure out the outfield situation), he has the potential to post 400+ point seasons.


Brandon Nimmo (OF) - 28% ESPN Leagues

Nimmo has a vey similar profile to Dahl with one big discrepancy.  Nimmo picks up the walks.  He's running a BB% of 17.7 as the writing of this article.  The issue for Nimmo is playing time.   The other youngster running around in the Mets outfeild Michael Conforto has a better glove, and is held in higher regard, Juan Legares despite his obvious flaws is still owed  6 Million, and lastly Jay Bruce and Yoennis Cespedes are not going anywhere anytime soon. 

Regardless of that concern, Nimmo is playing out of his mind right now (.926 OPS) while leading off for a decent Mets lineup.  Grab him while you can. 




Brian Anderson (OF/3B) - 12.3% ESPN Leagues

Anderson tormented minor league pitchers until he hit a snag in 2016 in Double A.  2017 saw Anderson adjust his swing to again, dominant results.  The Marlins called him up for the last month of the season and while Anderson was a little better than average, an elite line-drive rate and solid BB:SO rates hinted at a top 50 player.  After a torrid start to 2018, Anderson cooled off, and then in the past week or two has picked it up again.  .275/.360/.392 isn't AWESOME, but Anderson is almost guaranteed every day playing time, and a spot in the middle of the lineup for an obviously tanking Marlin team.  With a very acceptable KO% of 20.9 and a BB% of 9.8, Anderson looks to have that 10-12 point floor.  Watching him play, watching the ball come off his bat, you can see why he dominated the minors the way he did.

Anderson is an obvious roster, but, he's a little streaky and still has some filling out to do, so keep close tabs on his progress.

Friday, May 4, 2018

5 at #5: the options for a fifth starter

Contributed by Jaro Bruders

Even though he put up less than stellar numbers last year, Jerad Eickhoff will be the Phillies' fifth rotation member when he returns from the DL and rightfully so.  Armed with a big curve-ball and plus control, his first run through the majors might have been the best of the Phillies young starters.

Check out these splits from the first run through the majors.  (Stats are cumulative).

Aaron Nola

YearAgeWLW-L%ERAIPERA+WHIPBB9SO9
20152262.7503.5977.21071.1972.27.9
2016231211.5224.29188.2941.2612.39.0

Vince Velasquez

YearAgeWLW-L%ERAIPERA+WHIPBB9SO9
20152311.5004.3755.2901.2753.49.4
20162497.5634.19186.2981.3133.210.1

Jerad Eickhoff


YearAgeWLW-L%ERAIPERA+WHIPBB9SO9
20152433.5002.6551.01461.0392.38.6
2016251417.4523.44248.11201.1362.07.8


Right now I'm nearly a hundred percent convinced he will be a 3rd or 4th starter for years to come.

But until he will return (reports say he might be ready by the end of May) the Phillies have to use someone else in the fifth slot and Ben Lively just went down.  From now until the 31st doesn't sound like a whole lot of games, but in a season where a few games might be the difference between making the playoffs or watching the playoffs, this becomes an important situation.

They say it takes 10 starters to get through the rigors of a major league season, so with Eickhoff out, let's look at five options the Phillies have. 

#5 Ben Lively: 

Starting as the fifth man on the opening day roster showed that he probably is the organization's most trusted option. He failed to flash any signs of dominance though and managed to finish six Innings only once this season. At 27 one can not expect a lot of improvement in his stuff, which this year mostly featured a low 90s fastball and a mediocre curveball. The combination of his approach and stuff simply does not have a very high ceiling if he doesn't miraculously start commanding his pitches like Greg Maddux. 

#4 Zach Eflin: 

I was kind of surprised when I learned that Eflin is only 24 years old. Apparently he reached the Majors at 22, which differs my opinion on him a little. He got called up as Lively went down and had a great first start against a less than great Miami offense in which he allowed only three baserunners and one run over six frames. Over the last two years he has basically been the teams emergency starter, starting eleven games in each of them. Both times he posted an ERA around six and struggled to find any consistency. The 6-6/215 right hander had a good start to the season last year in which he pitched five straight quality games but could not carry those results past mid-may. His mid 90's fastball gives him more upside than Lively and due to his youth he still has a shot to develop into a solid Major League starter but with the arrival of guys like Sixto Sanchez, Franklin Kilome, JoJo Romero and Adonis Medina on the horizon, he better hurry.


#3 Tom Eshelman: 

Before the signing of Jake Arrieta a lot of reporters were pegging him as the opening day fifth starter. The 23 year old instead wound up in Lehigh Valley for his second season in AAA. Equipped with below average stuff he has made himself a name with surgical command (almost all articles I read about him used that exact phrase). Surprisingly he didn't even make the 40-man roster so it will be a long way to the Majors if he wants to pitch there this season. Right now I don't see the front office remove a reliever from the 40-man to make place for another starter. So if no one goes to the 60-day DL and Eflin and Lively completely loose their stuff I can't really see him up in Philadelphia this season. Furthermore he had a rough start to the year. His 6.75 ERA is deemed to be a little unlucky by his FIP, but he has been taken deep a lot this April. That is exactly why his ceiling isn't excitingly high either. With his arsenal simply not playing in the middle of the zone, he has to rely on being close to perfect every time on the mound. If he continues to have this amazing command he might end up as a “crafty” righty if there is such a thing. But bottom of the rotation a or Quad-A type appears to be the limit and if he's not pitching well in the minors, we probably don't want to expose him to major league hitters.

#2 Enyel de los Santos: 

The youngest of the bunch (he is 22) came over in the Freddy Galvis trade with the Padres last December and is probably the most promising of the group. His repertoire consists of a mid 90's fastball and a two off speed pitches. He is said to have slightly more command with his curve-ball than his fastball. He throws a lot of strikes but isn't necessarily a contact pitcher. Furthermore he only averages around five innings pitched in the minors which could be a concern going forward. Reading about him reminds me a whole lot of Vince Velasquez which isn't necessarily a good thing since Velasquez is mostly surviving in the big leagues due to his raw stuff rather than his pitching ability.

Why even consider him you ask? Because he has been off to a great start with a 1.40 ERA over 5 starts and appears to have taken a step forward this year according to scouts. Since he isn't on the 40-man roster either I see him facing similar obstacles as Eshelman. He might be the most promising of the near Major League ready starters but I think he needs to proof that he can be consistent in AAA for a while before gets called up.

#1 Plan B is for Bullpen:

I know this isn't really plan B but rather plan F but who doesn't like catchy headlines. Gabe Kapler has emphasized more than enough that he wants to be bold and defy league customs. One of the most open minded organizations, the Tampa Bay Rays (granted they have to try everything with the size of their market) has been employing a four man rotation this season. Major League Baseball implemented an extra four off days into their schedule for the 2018 season, so Kevin Cash and his staff are using those extra days to give their starters regular rest. In their system every off day basically accounts for a start of the fifth starter and then they fill in with bullpen games if there are too many consecutive games to give the starters their usual four day rest. This not only leads to one less starting pitcher needed, it also means they can use Chris Archer three or four times more per season.

If a player is on the DL for let's say a month, the Phillies could use the fifth slot only four times instead of five or six. While Eflin doesn't have the same splits as Leiter regarding the second time through the lineup, he does have significant splits between the first two times and the third time around. With the eight man bullpen Kapler currently employs I think it would be a great fit to use Eflin through lets say the first four and Leiter for the next three. Leiter may only be able to throw in one or two games between those long appearances but I believe the other relievers could pick that up for a month if Velasquez isn't done after four innings every time.

On the other hand this might go against Kapler's preference to use relievers for very short outings. Probably he would not be able to use the same strategy with one man less in the bullpen so I think this option isn't really probable.

For Tampa Bay it turned out alright so far. It is a small sample size but Chirrinos, Yarbrough and Kittredge put together a 4.73 ERA over 32.1 innings in declared bullpen games so far which is right where a lot of fifth starters in the league sit. In Philly it that would only be an advantage of a quarter of a run per game over Lively or Eflin, but they need to squeeze everything out of that spot.

Conclusion: What will they do?

Most likely they will go with Elfin unless he is horrible.  I know this isn't really a popular opinion, but for this season, right now, when games matter, I think he gives us the best shot to win every time the fifth slot comes up. He has the stuff to at least dominate sometimes and is the best player to give experience in the big leagues right now.

The other option we might see is the bullpen game.  To be clear I don't think the bullpen game is a long term option, it is just a way to fill in some starts here and there during this season in which the Rotation is clearly lacking depth behind the first five guys.

This whole situation might be annoying as all fans (including me) want to see the team finally compete for the playoffs again. But right now there simply isn't anyone in the system to replace the amazing production the rotation has given us. 

Anyway, even if you don't want to hear this anymore, we have to be patient. As I mentioned earlier we have amazing pitching prospects in the organization which will arrive in the Majors, with similar starting pitching in place. I am definitely looking forward to it.

Monday, April 30, 2018

Best of Philly Articles - April 2018

So, yeah, we're still looking for help over here.  In the meantime, we figure this is probably going to be a regular thing.  The best of the rest from April.

Enjoy!


Gabe Kapler is unlike any manager Philly fans have known (and booed) - an interesting write up on Kapler from NY Times scribe Tyler Kepner.  The New York-ness (arrogance, condescension, myopia, and tendency to focus in on irrelevant details) is on full display here, nonetheless, the article is well written and is an interesting outsider's perspective.

How Seranthony Dominguez's path to the Major could mimic Ken Giles - so remember that off-day when Kap drove to Reading to mingle with the prospects rather than... I dunno, go golfing or blog or whatever it is that Kap does in his down time.  Maybe it wasn't such a random act of beneficence after all.  From the folks at PhilliesMinorThoughts.

Progress Report - a nice look at how the 2018 team is progressing, 10% into the season from the dudes at We Should Be GM's.

The Newest Good Phillies Starter - a nice write up on Nick Pivetta from the very astute Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs.

Victor Arano is your new favorite reliever - for those of you who missed it, Arano threw a perfect game (in relief), setting some records along the way.  This is a nice look at Arano's strengths in the midst of his record-setting from Paul Boye over at The Good Phight.

Burn Facebook Game to the Ground:Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2 - a great write-up on the god-awful Facebook broadcasting crew by the very witty Liz Roscher over at The Good Phight.

Surging Phillies are just starting to figure out how good they are - a nice write up from Jerry Crasnik over at ESPN.

What's up with those 1's - a quick check in on the first round draft picks accrued during the past three years of "the process" from the dude over at Phoulballz.

It's Odubel Herera appreciation time - a great article from a great man (Tim Malcolm) about a great player.  Hz-ah!

Friday, April 27, 2018

The Phorum is Looking for Writers



The title says it all.  While we would like to kick out more Phillies' stories, we simply do not have the time (or ability).

While we appreciate statistics and game recaps; we are not FanGraphs or Crashburn Alley.  We want stories that showcase passionate opinions, a good sense of humor and then the statistics and what you see sprinkled throughout.  Although if you are a stat-head or game recapper, and the writing is good, we will be interested.  Ok, so basically we are just looking for good baseball writing. 

We would also like to start doing a fantasy baseball type articles so if you are in to that kind of thing and can write about it, that's something we would be interested in as well.

There is no limit to the number of writers we will be adding (the more the merrier - actually) and the position does not pay (and probably won't for the foreseeable future) but a). you are getting in on the ground floor of something we think is going to be very special and b). you will have a place to write and be creative.

So if you would like to add your voice to our team, simply post a comment below.

Include your name, email and (if applicable) a link to your blog or one or two of your stories.  

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

He is not who we thought he was - or is he? Un-confusing maverick third baseman Maikel Franco or not

For half a season, three years ago in 2015, just a few games past the point that the Phillies became unwatchable dreck, Maikel Franco came out of nowhere and smoked the ball for 80 games.  Posted 14 homeruns, with a .840 OPS on a team obviously throwing in the proverbial towel.  The swing was long and the throwing motion behind the bag looked a little funky, but the kid didn't strike out as much as you might think, and when Franco really got a hold of one, his bat made this incredible, undeniable sound.

Ryan Howard's bat made a sound a bit like that.  Like a peal of thunder.

OF course, early on, when we were still trying to figure out what he was and if watching him develop was worth the pain of watching a team in free fall, there were overly exuberant comparisons made to guys like Adrian Beltre and yes, Albert Pujols (which is crazy, by the way, just crazy).  Nonetheless, 1.9 WAR in half a season, a 130 OPS+ and the viciousness of his swing were all things to dream on.

And then 2016 happened. .255/.301/.427 and bad in the field (-0.4 dWAR), and bad on the bases (-1.9 BsR).  And then 2017 was an extension of 2016 with even worse luck (.230 baBip) and really no one watched the Phillies in 2017.

Here, now in 2018, even though the bat still holds thunder and Franco still swings from his heels, you might be wondering if Franco was ever really all that good in the first place.  IF he's the guy we want manning the hot-corner with wunderkid Scott Kingery on the 25 man roster.

Franco's numbers as of the writing of this post (.241/.292/.706) track pretty closely with his career averages.  To the eye, he looks about the same as he always has.  Mostly just a tick or two off, pulling worm-killer after worm-killer to the third base side.  There are still flashes of brilliance, the two games against Miami very early on, the game in Atlanta.  The problem is Franco collected 7 of his 14 hits in those three games and all of his extra base hits (5).  He's been in 18 games.

The Phillies are 14 and 7.  They haven't played a whole lot of games against what you might call, "good" teams, but winning is winning.  They're 9-1 at home and people are getting excited.  This year's team, not next year's, or the 2020 team might be making the post-season and as we have learned in the recent past: in the playoffs, crazy weird-ass shit can and usually does happen, so don't waste your appearances on upgrades next year.

So who the heck is this Maikel Franco guy, really.  Really really?

Right.  First off, what Maikel Franco is not.  While it is true that Maikel Franco's SO and BB rates are eerily similar to young Adrian Beltre's, those two stats are where the similarities end.  Beltre's base-running, defense and overall athleticism far surpass Franco's.  Which not a dig on Maikel, it was a ridiculous comparison then and it's a ridiculous comparison now.

Also, obviously, Franco is not Albert Pujols.  Lets' just leave it at that and move on.

So who is this freaking guy and is he gonna help the team or what, right?

Wethinks he is, has and will, dearest impatientest Philly fan.

First off, the defense does look a little better than 2015 and '16.  In fact a quick glance at Franco's defensive metrics and you'll see he's made some small improvements.  To the eye: Franco seems to be more comfortable.  The throws seem more confident more urgent, less like Spongebob tossing bubbles.  He still looks a long ways off from a Gold Glove, however.  Solid might be a more realistic ceiling.

Standard Fielding


YearAgeGFld%RtotRdrsRdrs/yrRF/9RF/GlgFld%lgRF9lgRFG
20142112.97551113.313.25.9622.522.51
20152275.944-12-8-142.282.24.9552.462.44
201623148.960-1-6-62.202.14.9562.522.50
201724144.955-2-4-42.292.21.9622.482.45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.comView Original Table
Generated 4/28/2018.

Secondly, perhaps more importantly, Franco does have a unique offensive skill set and in an era of strikeouts, a power and contact combo can be enormously valuable.  Simply, Franco has the ability to take over a game and win it almost by himself.  The underlying issue for Franco has up to this point been pitch recognition and being overly aggressive (IE: also called "no plan at the plate").  This is where we think Franco has made some big strides.

He's seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year, 3.85, up from 3.74 last year and is hitting the ball consistently harder (91.8 mph) than in any other season we've seen from him.  While its' true that he's still being bitten by the .BAbip bugaboo, and average over .260 or .270 probably overly-optimistic, a line of .255/.310/.450 with 25 to 30 big flies is well within Franco's reach.

And as we said before, Franco is getting better.

What Maikel Franco is for this 2018 team is a solid defensive third-baseman and 6 or 7 hole hitter capable of reeling off 2 to 3 game spurts of brilliant offensive production.  And he's improving.  Think Pedro Feliz in 2008.  A Cody Ross type of player.  Not necessarily the franchise building block we were sold in 2015, but Rhys, Odubel and Santana can't carry the offense by themselves.

Take a macro whole lineup view.  A seven game series view.  Franco wins game 5 by himself and hits an important sac fly in game 1 or 2.  All the while, he is solid at third and works the pitchers. 5,6,7 pitch at bats.  That's value from the six hole in this lineup.

For Franco's season to be a success, he just has to be himself.  Pop off once or twice a week and keep improving.