So, yeah, we're still looking for help over here. In the meantime, we figure this is probably going to be a regular thing. The best of the rest from April.
Enjoy!
Gabe Kapler is unlike any manager Philly fans have known (and booed) - an interesting write up on Kapler from NY Times scribe Tyler Kepner. The New York-ness (arrogance, condescension, myopia, and tendency to focus in on irrelevant details) is on full display here, nonetheless, the article is well written and is an interesting outsider's perspective.
How Seranthony Dominguez's path to the Major could mimic Ken Giles - so remember that off-day when Kap drove to Reading to mingle with the prospects rather than... I dunno, go golfing or blog or whatever it is that Kap does in his down time. Maybe it wasn't such a random act of beneficence after all. From the folks at PhilliesMinorThoughts.
Progress Report - a nice look at how the 2018 team is progressing, 10% into the season from the dudes at We Should Be GM's.
The Newest Good Phillies Starter - a nice write up on Nick Pivetta from the very astute Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs.
Victor Arano is your new favorite reliever - for those of you who missed it, Arano threw a perfect game (in relief), setting some records along the way. This is a nice look at Arano's strengths in the midst of his record-setting from Paul Boye over at The Good Phight.
Burn Facebook Game to the Ground:Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2 - a great write-up on the god-awful Facebook broadcasting crew by the very witty Liz Roscher over at The Good Phight.
Surging Phillies are just starting to figure out how good they are - a nice write up from Jerry Crasnik over at ESPN.
What's up with those 1's - a quick check in on the first round draft picks accrued during the past three years of "the process" from the dude over at Phoulballz.
It's Odubel Herera appreciation time - a great article from a great man (Tim Malcolm) about a great player. Hz-ah!
Monday, April 30, 2018
Friday, April 27, 2018
The Phorum is Looking for Writers
While we appreciate statistics and game recaps; we are not FanGraphs or Crashburn Alley. We want stories that showcase passionate opinions, a good sense of humor and then the statistics and what you see sprinkled throughout. Although if you are a stat-head or game recapper, and the writing is good, we will be interested. Ok, so basically we are just looking for good baseball writing.
We would also like to start doing a fantasy baseball type articles so if you are in to that kind of thing and can write about it, that's something we would be interested in as well.
We would also like to start doing a fantasy baseball type articles so if you are in to that kind of thing and can write about it, that's something we would be interested in as well.
There is no limit to the number of writers we will be adding (the more the merrier - actually) and the position does not pay (and probably won't for the foreseeable future) but a). you are getting in on the ground floor of something we think is going to be very special and b). you will have a place to write and be creative.
So if you would like to add your voice to our team, simply post a comment below.
Include your name, email and (if applicable) a link to your blog or one or two of your stories.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
He is not who we thought he was - or is he? Un-confusing maverick third baseman Maikel Franco or not
For half a season, three years ago in 2015, just a few games past the point that the Phillies became unwatchable dreck, Maikel Franco came out of nowhere and smoked the ball for 80 games. Posted 14 homeruns, with a .840 OPS on a team obviously throwing in the proverbial towel. The swing was long and the throwing motion behind the bag looked a little funky, but the kid didn't strike out as much as you might think, and when Franco really got a hold of one, his bat made this incredible, undeniable sound.
Ryan Howard's bat made a sound a bit like that. Like a peal of thunder.
OF course, early on, when we were still trying to figure out what he was and if watching him develop was worth the pain of watching a team in free fall, there were overly exuberant comparisons made to guys like Adrian Beltre and yes, Albert Pujols (which is crazy, by the way, just crazy). Nonetheless, 1.9 WAR in half a season, a 130 OPS+ and the viciousness of his swing were all things to dream on.
And then 2016 happened. .255/.301/.427 and bad in the field (-0.4 dWAR), and bad on the bases (-1.9 BsR). And then 2017 was an extension of 2016 with even worse luck (.230 baBip) and really no one watched the Phillies in 2017.
Here, now in 2018, even though the bat still holds thunder and Franco still swings from his heels, you might be wondering if Franco was ever really all that good in the first place. IF he's the guy we want manning the hot-corner with wunderkid Scott Kingery on the 25 man roster.
Franco's numbers as of the writing of this post (.241/.292/.706) track pretty closely with his career averages. To the eye, he looks about the same as he always has. Mostly just a tick or two off, pulling worm-killer after worm-killer to the third base side. There are still flashes of brilliance, the two games against Miami very early on, the game in Atlanta. The problem is Franco collected 7 of his 14 hits in those three games and all of his extra base hits (5). He's been in 18 games.
The Phillies are 14 and 7. They haven't played a whole lot of games against what you might call, "good" teams, but winning is winning. They're 9-1 at home and people are getting excited. This year's team, not next year's, or the 2020 team might be making the post-season and as we have learned in the recent past: in the playoffs, crazy weird-ass shit can and usually does happen, so don't waste your appearances on upgrades next year.
So who the heck is this Maikel Franco guy, really. Really really?
Right. First off, what Maikel Franco is not. While it is true that Maikel Franco's SO and BB rates are eerily similar to young Adrian Beltre's, those two stats are where the similarities end. Beltre's base-running, defense and overall athleticism far surpass Franco's. Which not a dig on Maikel, it was a ridiculous comparison then and it's a ridiculous comparison now.
Also, obviously, Franco is not Albert Pujols. Lets' just leave it at that and move on.
So who is this freaking guy and is he gonna help the team or what, right?
Wethinks he is, has and will, dearest impatientest Philly fan.
First off, the defense does look a little better than 2015 and '16. In fact a quick glance at Franco's defensive metrics and you'll see he's made some small improvements. To the eye: Franco seems to be more comfortable. The throws seem more confident more urgent, less like Spongebob tossing bubbles. He still looks a long ways off from a Gold Glove, however. Solid might be a more realistic ceiling.
Secondly, perhaps more importantly, Franco does have a unique offensive skill set and in an era of strikeouts, a power and contact combo can be enormously valuable. Simply, Franco has the ability to take over a game and win it almost by himself. The underlying issue for Franco has up to this point been pitch recognition and being overly aggressive (IE: also called "no plan at the plate"). This is where we think Franco has made some big strides.
He's seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year, 3.85, up from 3.74 last year and is hitting the ball consistently harder (91.8 mph) than in any other season we've seen from him. While its' true that he's still being bitten by the .BAbip bugaboo, and average over .260 or .270 probably overly-optimistic, a line of .255/.310/.450 with 25 to 30 big flies is well within Franco's reach.
And as we said before, Franco is getting better.
What Maikel Franco is for this 2018 team is a solid defensive third-baseman and 6 or 7 hole hitter capable of reeling off 2 to 3 game spurts of brilliant offensive production. And he's improving. Think Pedro Feliz in 2008. A Cody Ross type of player. Not necessarily the franchise building block we were sold in 2015, but Rhys, Odubel and Santana can't carry the offense by themselves.
Take a macro whole lineup view. A seven game series view. Franco wins game 5 by himself and hits an important sac fly in game 1 or 2. All the while, he is solid at third and works the pitchers. 5,6,7 pitch at bats. That's value from the six hole in this lineup.
For Franco's season to be a success, he just has to be himself. Pop off once or twice a week and keep improving.
Ryan Howard's bat made a sound a bit like that. Like a peal of thunder.
OF course, early on, when we were still trying to figure out what he was and if watching him develop was worth the pain of watching a team in free fall, there were overly exuberant comparisons made to guys like Adrian Beltre and yes, Albert Pujols (which is crazy, by the way, just crazy). Nonetheless, 1.9 WAR in half a season, a 130 OPS+ and the viciousness of his swing were all things to dream on.
And then 2016 happened. .255/.301/.427 and bad in the field (-0.4 dWAR), and bad on the bases (-1.9 BsR). And then 2017 was an extension of 2016 with even worse luck (.230 baBip) and really no one watched the Phillies in 2017.
Here, now in 2018, even though the bat still holds thunder and Franco still swings from his heels, you might be wondering if Franco was ever really all that good in the first place. IF he's the guy we want manning the hot-corner with wunderkid Scott Kingery on the 25 man roster.
Franco's numbers as of the writing of this post (.241/.292/.706) track pretty closely with his career averages. To the eye, he looks about the same as he always has. Mostly just a tick or two off, pulling worm-killer after worm-killer to the third base side. There are still flashes of brilliance, the two games against Miami very early on, the game in Atlanta. The problem is Franco collected 7 of his 14 hits in those three games and all of his extra base hits (5). He's been in 18 games.
The Phillies are 14 and 7. They haven't played a whole lot of games against what you might call, "good" teams, but winning is winning. They're 9-1 at home and people are getting excited. This year's team, not next year's, or the 2020 team might be making the post-season and as we have learned in the recent past: in the playoffs, crazy weird-ass shit can and usually does happen, so don't waste your appearances on upgrades next year.
So who the heck is this Maikel Franco guy, really. Really really?
Right. First off, what Maikel Franco is not. While it is true that Maikel Franco's SO and BB rates are eerily similar to young Adrian Beltre's, those two stats are where the similarities end. Beltre's base-running, defense and overall athleticism far surpass Franco's. Which not a dig on Maikel, it was a ridiculous comparison then and it's a ridiculous comparison now.
Also, obviously, Franco is not Albert Pujols. Lets' just leave it at that and move on.
So who is this freaking guy and is he gonna help the team or what, right?
Wethinks he is, has and will, dearest impatientest Philly fan.
First off, the defense does look a little better than 2015 and '16. In fact a quick glance at Franco's defensive metrics and you'll see he's made some small improvements. To the eye: Franco seems to be more comfortable. The throws seem more confident more urgent, less like Spongebob tossing bubbles. He still looks a long ways off from a Gold Glove, however. Solid might be a more realistic ceiling.
| Year | Age | G | Fld% | Rtot | Rdrs | Rdrs/yr | RF/9 | RF/G | lgFld% | lgRF9 | lgRFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 21 | 12 | .975 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 3.31 | 3.25 | .962 | 2.52 | 2.51 |
| 2015 | 22 | 75 | .944 | -12 | -8 | -14 | 2.28 | 2.24 | .955 | 2.46 | 2.44 |
| 2016 | 23 | 148 | .960 | -1 | -6 | -6 | 2.20 | 2.14 | .956 | 2.52 | 2.50 |
| 2017 | 24 | 144 | .955 | -2 | -4 | -4 | 2.29 | 2.21 | .962 | 2.48 | 2.45 |
He's seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year, 3.85, up from 3.74 last year and is hitting the ball consistently harder (91.8 mph) than in any other season we've seen from him. While its' true that he's still being bitten by the .BAbip bugaboo, and average over .260 or .270 probably overly-optimistic, a line of .255/.310/.450 with 25 to 30 big flies is well within Franco's reach.
And as we said before, Franco is getting better.
What Maikel Franco is for this 2018 team is a solid defensive third-baseman and 6 or 7 hole hitter capable of reeling off 2 to 3 game spurts of brilliant offensive production. And he's improving. Think Pedro Feliz in 2008. A Cody Ross type of player. Not necessarily the franchise building block we were sold in 2015, but Rhys, Odubel and Santana can't carry the offense by themselves.
Take a macro whole lineup view. A seven game series view. Franco wins game 5 by himself and hits an important sac fly in game 1 or 2. All the while, he is solid at third and works the pitchers. 5,6,7 pitch at bats. That's value from the six hole in this lineup.
For Franco's season to be a success, he just has to be himself. Pop off once or twice a week and keep improving.
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Amaro or Klentak: The Shocking Truth of a Super Roster Designed and Constructed in the Shadowy Back-streets of South Philly, Conspiracy - Revealed!
Ok, there's no "Super Roster" and there's also no conspiracy (well, we're pretty sure there's no conspiracy) but we thought it was a funny headline and that maybe a little humor could help the medicine go down. IF you, like us have taken a two year hiatus from the Fightins, this next sentence may come as a shock to you.
The 2018 Phillies are for the most part Reuben Amaro's guys. That's not as bad as it sounds, Gillick and to some extent Amaro won with Ed Wade's guys. It's how it works. The new guy wins or looses with the old guy's players.
And, well, and it's very possible that the Eagles having beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl and the Sixers being in the playoffs and looking good has softened us up a little but maybe Reuben Amaro wasn't really as bad as we made him out to be. Maybe he was just hired/promoted for a position in a moment for which he simply wasn't qualified. Not many baseball men have the prerequisite experience and instincts necessary to navigate a such a moment so Reuben wasn't necessarily a bad hire. Ok, maybe he was. But, he was maybe not necessarily a bad guy, a bad dude. Just horribly under-qualified and under experienced. FOR THAT MOMENT. For the season after the euphoria.
Reuben did some good things, did some very good things and some very not so good things. You can probably say that about any/every GM/Manager/Scout/Player/Person. The problem for Reuben was the timing of the hire. Reuben hadn't climbed the mountain. Hadn't had the time to learn how to tie an entire 40 man roster to the rigors of the regular season, timing both the big mid-season moves with the little waiver wires ones so that the team peaks at just the right moment. Hadn't had the time to learn. To fail and adjust and fail and adjust again. The price for even just a little slippage on those squads was surely death. Poor guy was blindfolded and dropped on icy peak and told to hang on here for a while.
Nonetheless, Amaro hung/clung around these parts for the better part of a decade, '09-15, and his fingerprints are still all over this franchise.
A quick glance at the current 25 man roster, there are a few free agent acquisitions, one Gillick hold-over, but for the most part, Rhys, Kingery, Odubel, Nola and Pivetta. They're all Amaro's guys.
You kinda feel for for Rube after looking down this thing. He did after all win a lot of regular season games. He gave us Doc Holiday and Cliff Lee. He was bold and wanted to win, the mid-season trades were legendary.
I've always wondered if Amaro had been there in the beginning. IF he was the GM to trade Leiber and Thome, and fire Bowa. If Amaro had been the guy who hired Charlie Manual. I wonder if we might have had a few more Championships. I always wondered why he went so pitching heavy rather than supplementing the lineup. Maybe experience would have given him a better understanding of role players and position players versus pitchers. Maybe not. Regardless of the outcome, being a part of that magical '08 season, Amaro would have forged a relationship with the city and that would have given him space to stumble and fail.
And there was so much failing. Watching Reuben's early teams, all that brute power and pedigree flailing around in October, just a tic or two off, made you want to rip your heart out.
The horrifyingly bad drafts, putting all that money into pitchers - pitchers who's heads can literally explode while on the mound, their arms sometimes falling off their bodies, in mid-motion mind you - like a fish flopping out of water, the arm just lying on the grass, baseball stuck in the fingers just flopping around, anyhow, all that failure and maybe Amaro adjusted.
The 2018 Phillies are for the most part Reuben Amaro's guys. That's not as bad as it sounds, Gillick and to some extent Amaro won with Ed Wade's guys. It's how it works. The new guy wins or looses with the old guy's players.
And, well, and it's very possible that the Eagles having beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl and the Sixers being in the playoffs and looking good has softened us up a little but maybe Reuben Amaro wasn't really as bad as we made him out to be. Maybe he was just hired/promoted for a position in a moment for which he simply wasn't qualified. Not many baseball men have the prerequisite experience and instincts necessary to navigate a such a moment so Reuben wasn't necessarily a bad hire. Ok, maybe he was. But, he was maybe not necessarily a bad guy, a bad dude. Just horribly under-qualified and under experienced. FOR THAT MOMENT. For the season after the euphoria.
Reuben did some good things, did some very good things and some very not so good things. You can probably say that about any/every GM/Manager/Scout/Player/Person. The problem for Reuben was the timing of the hire. Reuben hadn't climbed the mountain. Hadn't had the time to learn how to tie an entire 40 man roster to the rigors of the regular season, timing both the big mid-season moves with the little waiver wires ones so that the team peaks at just the right moment. Hadn't had the time to learn. To fail and adjust and fail and adjust again. The price for even just a little slippage on those squads was surely death. Poor guy was blindfolded and dropped on icy peak and told to hang on here for a while.
Nonetheless, Amaro hung/clung around these parts for the better part of a decade, '09-15, and his fingerprints are still all over this franchise.
A quick glance at the current 25 man roster, there are a few free agent acquisitions, one Gillick hold-over, but for the most part, Rhys, Kingery, Odubel, Nola and Pivetta. They're all Amaro's guys.
Position
|
Player
|
Year Acquired
|
GM
|
Transaction details
|
c
|
Jorge Alfaro
|
2015
|
Amaro
|
Via Cole Hamels trade
|
Andrew Knapp
|
2013
|
Amaro
|
2nd Round June Draft
| |
1B
|
Carlos Santana
|
2017
|
Klentak
|
Free Agent Dec ‘17
|
2B
|
Cesar Hernandez
|
2006
|
Pat Gillick
|
International signing
|
Scott Kingery
|
2015
|
Amaro
|
2nd Round June Draft
| |
SS
|
JP Crawford
|
2013
|
Amaro
|
1st Round June Draft
|
Pedro Florimon
|
2017
|
Klentak
|
Free Agent Nov ‘17
| |
3B
|
Maikel Franco
|
2010
|
Amaro
|
International signing
|
LF
|
Rhys Hoskins
|
2014
|
Amaro
|
5th Round June Draft
|
CF
|
Odubel Herrera
|
2014
|
Amaro
|
Rule 5 Draft
|
RF
|
Nick Williams
|
2015
|
Amaro
|
Via Cole Hamels trade
|
Aaron Altherr
|
2009
|
Amaro
|
9th Round June Draft
| |
SP
|
Aaron Nola
|
2014
|
Amaro
|
1st Round June Draft
|
Nick Pivetta
|
2015
|
Amaro
|
Via Papelbon trade
| |
Vince Velasquez
|
2015
|
Klentak
|
Via Ken Giles trade
| |
Ben Lively
|
2014
|
Amaro
|
Via Marlon Byrd trade
| |
Jake Arrieta
|
2018
|
Klentak
|
Free Agent March ‘18
| |
RP
|
Victor Arano
|
2014
|
Amaro
|
Via Roberto Hernandez trade
|
Hoby Milner
|
2012
|
Amaro
|
7th Round June Draft
| |
Adam Morgan
|
2011
|
Amaro
|
3rd Round June Draft
| |
Yacksel Rios
|
2011
|
Amaro
|
12 Round June Draft
| |
Jake Thompson
|
2015
|
Amaro
|
Via Cole Hamels trade
| |
Edubray Ramos
|
2012
|
Amaro
|
Free Agent Nov ‘12
| |
Drew Hutchison
|
2018
|
Klentak
|
Free Agent Feb ‘18
| |
Luis Garcia
|
2013
|
Amaro
|
Free Agent Mar ‘13
| |
CP
|
Hector Neris
|
2010
|
Amaro
|
International signing
|
You kinda feel for for Rube after looking down this thing. He did after all win a lot of regular season games. He gave us Doc Holiday and Cliff Lee. He was bold and wanted to win, the mid-season trades were legendary.
I've always wondered if Amaro had been there in the beginning. IF he was the GM to trade Leiber and Thome, and fire Bowa. If Amaro had been the guy who hired Charlie Manual. I wonder if we might have had a few more Championships. I always wondered why he went so pitching heavy rather than supplementing the lineup. Maybe experience would have given him a better understanding of role players and position players versus pitchers. Maybe not. Regardless of the outcome, being a part of that magical '08 season, Amaro would have forged a relationship with the city and that would have given him space to stumble and fail.
And there was so much failing. Watching Reuben's early teams, all that brute power and pedigree flailing around in October, just a tic or two off, made you want to rip your heart out.
The horrifyingly bad drafts, putting all that money into pitchers - pitchers who's heads can literally explode while on the mound, their arms sometimes falling off their bodies, in mid-motion mind you - like a fish flopping out of water, the arm just lying on the grass, baseball stuck in the fingers just flopping around, anyhow, all that failure and maybe Amaro adjusted.
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