Wednesday, March 30, 2011

2011: Phillies – Great Expectations


Ok, so Amaro pulled off the biggest coup since Dr. J in signing Cliff Lee, and we've the spent a winter feeling tingly and slightly off-balance.  We've gobbled up the pundits off-season proclaimations and predictions, followed the tantric workouts of Jimmy Rollins with a heightened albeit vague anxiety – we have after all, literally sold the farm, if the boys in red don't come sauntering down Broadway come October, this new era, this decade of dominance is further tapered by the cynicism of expectation, of dollars and sense, perhaps more than ever before, after all, on paper, this group should make franchise history. Three legitimate MVP candidates in Howard, Utley and Rollins; four Cy Young Award candidates, five gold gloves, and a rookie of the year candidate…


Ultimately however, the games are played on the field. The unexpected, unheard, statistically aberrant and just plain strange are commonplace. (Remember Edgar Renteria's homerun this past October, some guy named Cody Ross wrecking the Fightin's latest post-season push, the "Midge Game" back in '07). Simply, more often than not, it's the unheralded and unsung who make the difference between really good and champion.



In this season of great expectations, here are some storylines to follow:


Matt Anderson Reclamation Project
Sidelined by squid; the former fireballer was signed in January after topping 95 for a collection of scouts. While Anderson is a longshot (probably won't make the team out of spring training) he is an intriguing addition in terms of depth. Remember Lidge, Madson, Romero, and Durbin all spent time on the DL last year.


Health of the Starting Rotation
Contrary to popular opinion, Roy Halladay is not a machine (yes, I know, go ahead and take a minute to compose yourself, it's shocking, I understand). Halladay missed half the season in '04 and '05 with shoulder issue and leg problems and in 09 tweaked his groin in a June start causing him to miss a few starts. Halladay, a workout freak, did after all toss almost 300 innings last season. It should be interesting to see if Charlie pulls the reins in a bit, if they stick to a strict pitch count until later in the summer or if the offense sputters, Charlie does what Charlie does (manages to win every game despite the marathon quality of the baseball season, Charlie doesn't seem to believe in saving anything for tomorrow's game) and lets Roy pitch 20 complete games by the all-star break .


Cliff Lee began last year on the DL and although he came back and was spectacular, it was the third time Lee has suffered an abdominal injury since 03.



Roy Oswalt is 33 and has had back issues, Blanton though durable, spent time on the DL last year and Cole, well, Cole is left-handed and from California, so you never really know.



Right Field - Brown vs Mayberry, Francisco
Looks like Amaro is giving uber-prospect Dom Brown the starting right field position. Yes, he and Charlie have said all the politically correct things; kids unproven, gotta win the job, blah, blah, blah; but you get the sense that neither Benny Fresh or big John really have a shot at winning the starter's spot. Brown however, is still very raw, and after having a forgettable September and October, had a truly awful stint in Winter Ball.

The Maturation of Cole Hamels
Cole Hamels seems to have mastered his cutter and for long stretches in '10, Hamels was hitting 95-96 on the gun. This year we may see the first truly dominant season from the California left-hander as he now has three plus pitches at his disposal. Manual has been quoted as saying Hamels looks stronger. Hamels was very, very good the second half of last season, but because of poor run support, had a so-so win loss record. As with all changeup artists, Hamel's success will hinge on fastball control.



Health of Chase Utley & Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley, perhaps the most important single player on the team, has been dinged up the past couple of years and comes into camp with a gimpy knee. Certainly the Fightins can win without Utley, but this is the guy who tied Babe Ruth's record for consecutive post season games on base, the guy who made the most memorable throw home in Franchise history. Charlie seems to have a man-crush on the guy, the late great Harry once proclaimed Chase Utley, you are the man; simply, the Fightins can get along without Utley, but they will need him come October.



Jimmy Rollins had one of the worst years of his career last year due to injuries and well, let's face it, age. It's a well-known stat by now that when Rollins plays well, the Phillies play well. That was never truer than last post-season. I remember that game against the Marlins late last September when Rollins tweaked his hammie, our season had for all intensive purposes ended that day. Rollins never really recovered and in addition to Howard's sore ankle, the Phil's offense was predictably mediocre.



Backing up Utley and Rollins, Rule 5 Michael Martinez, Atlanta Brave castoff Pete Orr, the solid sometimes clutch Wilson Valdez.



The Farm hands: Stutes, Matheison & Worley
All three pitchers are major league ready and look to contribute at some point this season. Worley was impressive in limited action last year (an era under two and an impressive start in Atlanta late in the year). Stutes and Matheison are the future of the bullpen, Matheison coming off an impressive '10 where he had, 26 saves, and 83 strikeouts in 64 innings worth of work at the triple A level. Stutes throws a heavy ball and has a sneaky delivery and could be a surprise out of spring training.



Brad Lidge and the Ninth
World Champions typically have a stud in the ninth (as we well know) and while Lidge is no longer a top tier closer firing 95 mph bullets and that filthy foot and half break slider, Lidge can be an above average to good closer. Last year, Lidge re-invented himself and while he wasn't the '08 version, he was a substantial improvement over the '09 version. The fastball is no longer overpowering, but Lidge complements it with three variations of his slider: the big nasty, a 84, 85 mph pitch that falls off a cliff 10 feet from the batter's box, a little backup slider that comes in around 82, 83 and slow diver that rolls in around 79-81 and looks like a change. Lidge is the final year of his contract and is healthy coming into spring training for the first time since he arrived in Philadelphia. Of course, should Lidge struggle or suffer an injury, Madson is waiting in the wings, has the stuff but to this point has not proven he can handle the mental grind of the ninth inning.



Phillies sign Megatron
One of the funniest sports satire stories in a while.  This piece from Satirical Justice appeared after the Phillies signed Cliff Lee.