Phighting Irrelevance: Legion of doom? *under construction*

THE BULLPEN:

Of the many many many many many problems in 2015, surprisingly, the bullpen wasn't one.  Well , ok, we're not saying it was some legion of doom lights out goodnight sweetheart type bullpen, but, it wasn't the blazing tire fire that we thought it might be in spring training.

While Jonathon meathead Papelbon was here he turned in maybe the best performance of his Phillies career (on the field; off the field, he still said and did all kinds of ignoramus things) going 17-17 in Save opportunities, and posting a sub 2 ERA.   Ken Giles regressed, but only slightly and we knew that Giles wasn't going to best those 2014 numbers, that 0.788 WHIP and 12.6 SO9, Giles was good, dominant for stretches.  Jeanmar Gomez had a six week stretch of scoreless appearances and Dalier Hinojoso was a small sample samurai in the final month of the season.

Overall the group posted a league average 69% save rate (which in real life is awful, 16 blown saves) and the league's second worst inherited runners score rate or IRS at 33%.   The 25 and 23  win-loss mark is a bit misleading as the group didn't come into a whole lot of tie games or games with the lead.  The ERA (3.81) is a bit misleading as well as the group also posted a 1.433 WHIP.  Not good, but not completely horrific either.

We know, we know, we began this post by saying the bullpen wasn't a problem.  There are three or four solid to spectacular pieces already on the team is what we're saying.  The market's loaded and the Phillies have some real in house talent to boot.

The bullpen, out of all the issues facing the Phillies, could be the easiest (and quickest) to fix, is what we're saying.

There.  We said it.

It's been said.

PEICES IN PLACE

Projected Closer: Ken Giles

"I'm so freakin' awesome I think I might freakin' EXPLODE!"

The velocity on Kengo's fastball dipped and he had some early season control issues, but in 2015 Ken Giles was still gosh-darned NASTYYYYYYY-EEEE-EE-E!  2.13 FIP with a 11.2 SO9 rate.  Ya know who's ya daddy when this dude takes the bump.

So, yeah, maybe he brings the 1.80 ERA and that wipeout slidepeice back to the closer's role in 2016.  We're thinking, he's probably gonna be pretty good.  Maybe a guy to have on your fantasy baseball team, if your into that kind of thing.

Projected 2016 line: 2.09 FIP/11.0 SO9.  Saves 38 of 42 games, and pitches in 60+ to a 2.13 ERA

Projected 6th/7th inning guy: Jeanmar Gomez

Ok, so Gomez wasn't really a surprise.  C'mon, two years with the zen master Ray Searage.  A sinking fastball that can spill over into the mid-nineties.  A career ERA arc that had steadily been dipping in the 3's.  60 innings with a 3.01 ERA was a little better than expected, but you can't call it surprising.

Gomez is 28 and though he had that mid-season stretch of brilliance, it was more likely just a stretch of really good pitching rather than an indicator of future performance.  The league is constantly adjusting, and quite simply, there's probably not a whole lot of upside left to Gomez.  What you see is what you get.  Which isn't bad at all.  The Phils are going to need arms like Gomez.  Chad Durbiny Types.

So the Phils have one.

Projected 2016 line: Struggles early but then turns it on and ends up with a solid 3.25ish ERA over 65+ innings.

Next.

X-factor in 2016?

Projected 6th/7th inning guy/ spot starter:  Dalier Hinojosa

The other cuban pitcher Amaro aquired (snagged of waivers from Boston), Hinojosa features a fairly straight 94+ fastball that he likes to throw to either side of the plate and a late eighties cutter/slider that doesn't have great movement, but a pitch that has definite swing and miss potential.

Hinojosa posted so-so numbers in the Cuban League's and was so-so for Boston's AAA squad and then Phils AAA squad.  None of that means anything really.  Both of Hinojosa's stints in the minors were limited to less than 30 innings of work.  In Cuba, Dalier was a starter and had a fastball that sat in the low 90's.

All of that said, the Cuban could be very good for the Phillies in 2016 as a mid innings reliever or spot starter.  We project a solid to above average 90+ innings pitched with a couple of surprisingly good spot starts and an overall low 3ish ERA.

TO BE CONTINUED... (so, I have a day job that keeps me busy 60+ hours a week and because it's a restaurant, we are perpetually short-handed... which means I have to work more - I actually have to be at work right now - and have less time for awesome things like this blog).  Well, bear with me dearest and truest fan of the Phillies.

I hope to complete the post by this weekend.

Subjects still to be discussed:

-Adam Morgan's possible transition to the bullpen.

-A look at the free agent market

-A look at some in-house minor league options

-What the Phillies bullpen might look like in 2016

Phighting Irrelevance: The Arms race

Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in 2016, my dearest and most skeptical of all the fanbases in fandom, is that the pitching staff could be and should be remarkably better than the group of retreads and 2nd year starters that began the 2015 season.  Of course, MacPhail, Profrock and the mystery GM need to have a baller off-season, but, for the first time in a long time, the Phils have money to burn and lucky for them, the Free Agent pitching market is stacked for the next two years, both at home and abroad.

We shall gather in joy again soon, my most passionate baseball brothers and sisters

I see that skeptical yet adorable frown, dearest Phillies fan.  I'm well aware that we're trudging neck deep through, well, hypotheticals, but the idea that the Phillies might be capable of playing a winning brand of baseball by mid-June next season isn't as far-fetched as you think.

THE PIECES IN PLACE:

Starting Rotation

The Phillies have some real bonafide talent to build around mixed in with some obvious and serious depth problems.  Not the complete worst of problems to have (having aging talent that is about to fall off a performance cliff though you have no idea that your a) talent is human and susceptible to effects of injury and time, especially a combination of the two and b) you spend a bunch of money to keep those aging arms about to fall off, achilles about to snap, knees about to buckle talent - that would be a worse problem to have, wouldn't you agree?)

Thinking that you have something whilest having nothing vs. having nothing and knowing you have nothing.  SEE?  AKA wearing your Ruben Amaro Jr shades, versus looking at the team in the harsh, cold light of well, daylight.  Or any light really.  

Having such obvious holes allows the Phillies braintrust to see clearly and laser in on definitive roster upgrades.  And because of a bloated market and the walking dead being released, traded or beheaded, the Phillies are now flush with cash and can and should upgrade now rather than later.  Nola, Eickhoff and Morgan, while none of these three project to be an ace, they are all young, cheap, above average pitchers.   Remember, Remember the parade in October.

The Fightin's never won it all with Doc and Clifford, they beat the world with mostly a bunch of gritty #3 types.  Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton.  Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick.  Yes, they had an ace, but it was only Cole's first full swing through the league; the curve and cutter were still years away. (Remember when he was just a two-pitch wunderkid).  The rotation just needs to be solid, is all we're saying.  With an ace on top.

He's got that winner's shine

Aaron Nola:

PROJECTED #3 Starter

The 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Aaron Nola has been every bit the Michelangelo on the edges he was billed to be and he's turned out to be a pretty cool customer as well.  After getting shellacked by the Mets in his fifth start, Nola came back and 2 hit the Padres for seven innings and then 3 hit the Marlins for eight innings.

If not a true number 1, some baseball insiders think Nola's plus makeup elevates his ceiling to a 1A or a Super 2   While we here at the forum tend to eschew hyperbole (NO WE DON'T!!!), Nola's bewitching pitch dance to either side of the plate, and just plain grit, are a reason to think the Phillies might have something special here.

Nonetheless, Nola is going to have some struggles in 2016.  He pitches in the strikezone and doesn't have overwhelming stuff. There might be stretch or two where it looks like he's tossing BP up there, and honestly, depending on how Nola, like many of the young players on this list, makes his way through those stretches will largely determine what kind of pitcher the Phillies really have on their hands.

We project a 14-10 guy with an ERA right around 3.75.

Jerad Eikhoff

Had back to back 10k performances

Projected #4 Starter

Eickhoff, a 25 year old right-hander with a big frame and long smooth delivery, was drafted by Texas in the 15th round of the 2011 draft.  Largely unheralded, the Indiana native had a mostly up and down run through the minors posting a career 4.14 ERA, 1.211 WHIP and weakish 7.4 SO/9.  However, in 2014, Eickoff might have had a 'eureka' season.  Though he posted a mediocre 4+ ERA, a deeper look into the numbers reveals a career best 8.4 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 1.173 WHIP over just about 160 innings.  Projected as a backend of the rotation or bullpen guy before and during the trade, Eickhoff's 11 starts since being traded to the Phils have been eye-opening..  Not only has Eickhoff continued to pitch to his 2014 numbers but he has been better in the bigs, posting a 2.3, 8.6 walk and strikeout per nine rate alongside a miserly 1.039 WHIP.

Nice numbers for sure, you say, but SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!!  Jerome Williams had shiny numbers for eight starts and that turned out horribly.  HORRIBLY, you say.  Which is true and Williams was indeed so scary bad this year that MacKanin banished him to the clubhouse (bullpen) only to be summoned when no one in the ball park was looking (blow-outs).

There are a lot of differences here but the main one is simple.  Williams was old when the Phillies picked him up (32) and coming off three consecutive seasons of 6+ ERA's.

Eickoff on the other hand is young (25) and though he has some obvious problem areas he needs to work on, those problems (his fastball location as well as the break and tilt of his changeup) are fixable.  With the right usage and coaching, Eickoff might be an above average #4 right now with a ceiling as high as a solid #3.

Look for 18+ Quality Starts in 2016 from the Cole Hamels "throw-in".  A half dozen or so really special starts, maybe an eight to ten game run like the one we just saw, but expect Eickoff to post an ERA just a tick over or under 4.  The fastball is extremely hittable and lefties are going to be a problem until he develops his change-up.


Adam Morgan

PROJECTED #5 Starter

A big-time prospect not so long ago, Morgan was drafted by Ruben in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft.  A rotator cuff knocked the wirey left-hander off the prospect radar and well, quite frankly, he just didn't pitch that well when he came back.  Ok, truth be told, we don't particularly care for Adam Morgan (not as a starter), and a glance over his minor league career and the statline he put up in 2015 and there's not a whole lot to love.  Sorry bud, but a fly-ball pitcher, with so-so strikeout stuff doesn't do a whole lot for us.

There is a silverish lining, however.  Though Morgan doesn't throw very hard, he changes speeds well on all of his pitches, has a nice three pitch mix and locates well (or not at all, in which case he throws his not very fast kinda straight fastball right smack dab down the middle of the plate - in 20% of his starts he gave up 5 runs+).

Oh right, silver lining.

He does seem to have a grit and grind to him though, and he's tough with men on base (71.6% LOB).

Finally, the left-hander bounces back well from bad starts (six innings of four hit ball against the Padres after the 4 homerun bludgeoning by the Mets). This pitchability, the poise (even when he was getting shellacked, Morgan seemed calm and cool) right now will usually get you through 6 innings and at 25 years old, Morgan's still got some upside.

8 of his 15 first big league starts have been Quality Starts, good for 53%.  The league average is 50%.  It would be nice to shift Morgan to the bullpen (where he belongs and where not for nothing, the control and three pitch mix and poise would really play up - velocity would probably tick up as well) but having Morgan at the back end of the rotation isn't bad way to go either.  We predict Morgan has a Randy Wolf-esqe season in 2016, 12-10, 4.17 ERA, 16+QS.

Or, perhaps as a final act of roster savaging, the kid's arm falls off during a start in mid May.  Somewhere in the distance, Ruben Amaro Jr. laughing, sad, the vanquished, setting fire to the building as he goes.


ORG DEPTH

There's an old baseball adage that you need a starting 8 to get through the rigors of a full 162 game season and as such we take a look at the names that are probably going to make 20 to 30 starts in 2016.

Alec Asher - AAA What you see is what you get. (And we saw it).  Phils need to upgrade here
Matt Harrsion - DL - You may not remember, but Matt Harrison pitched some big games for some good Rangers teams back in the 00's. A serious longshot (back injuries and tall pitchers don't usually make for good comeback stories) but Harrison is only 30 and an All-star as recently as 2012, it wouldn't be completely surprising for the salary dump guy to roll out of spring training with the big league club.  Probably in that scenario, the number two guy.  Keep an eye on this big left-hander's progress in spring training.
David Buchanon AAA- Buchanon pitched well for stretches in 2014 but the wheels came off in 2015.  Pray to the baseball gods that Buchanon starts the year (and stays) in AAA
Severino Gonzalez AAA - Gonzalez is an interesting player to keep an eye on if only to pray that his name doesn't show up on the 25 man roster.  While still young, 23, Severino was obviously and horrifically overmatched in his 7 big league starts.  Glance over his minor league stats and you see he's been kinda horrific for a few years now. Phils need to upgrade here as well.
Jake Thompson AAA -  Thomson's a name that you're going to hear a lot over the coming winter.  A lot.  A Hard throwing righty, this guy could be an in-house upgrade, bolstering the triple A rotation and providing 10 to 15 starts late in the year.
Franklyn Kilome AA - Another hard throwing righthander that you're going to hear a lot about over the coming winter.  Kilome looked a little green to us, and probably won't crack the big league rotation in 2016, but he might be an interesting ace in the hole type option out of the bullpen ala 2014 Brandon Finnegan.


WHAT THE PHILLIES NEED

Obviously, MacPhail and Co amongst the myriad of other holes in the roster, need to find a way to either sign or trade for two top of the rotation types.  Guess what Phillies fan!

The free agent market is loaded!!  For the next two years!!!

The Phillies also still have a few tradeable assets left (Darin Ruf, Dominic Brown, Carlos Ruiz) but my guess is that the mystery GM targets 2nd tier types and 2nd tier types coming off injury plagued years or bounce back candidates.

Chris Young, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, ect.  Smart two-year contract guys with a solid floor and a maybe little bit of ceiling.  Hopefully, the days of John Lannan and Chad Billingsley, Jerome Williams, ect are behind us.

OUR PROJECTED 2016 STARTING ROTATION

1. Hisashi Iwakuma/Jeff Smardszija
2. Matt Latos/Brett Anderson/JA Happ
3. Aaron Nola
4. Jarad Eickhoff
5. Adam Morgan

Week twenty-five wrap-up: Playoff consolation game: no consolation for the heartbroken

TEAM WHODATS                    441
ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS     335

Finishing in fourth hurts.  Hard.  Deja Vu all over again as the lineup was spectacularly bad and I took some serious missteps on the waiver wire.

Lineup:  The lineup was mediocre to wretched posting a total of 150 points.  Yikes.  Granted last weeks loss was so devastating I couldn't make myself even log in to my account until late Tuesday afternoon. As such I missed a 7 point Monday from Kendrys Morales.  Didn't make many waiver wire moves and the two moves that I did make netted a big fat -1.

The big stinkers for the week: Anthony Rendon (-4), Josh Reddick (4), Ender Inciarte (5), Ben Zobrist (9) and Buster Posey (4).  Rendon was absolutely gawd-awful with three hits and ten strikeouts in a full seven games, the others missed multiple starts because of either injury or their respective team was no longer in contention, or had their playoff spot wrapped up.  Regardless, what began the year as a bad lineup ended the year as a bad lineup.

Pitching:  the pitching staff was better than last week, but still way off the design threshold, posting a total of 185.  The bullpen was shaky once again, with Osuna (-5), Axford (3), Rosethal (7) and Ken Giles (5) all having off weeks.  King Felix didn't pitch at all, but the my waiver wire picks weren't horrible with 10 of fourteen posting starts of 14+.   Unfortunately the other four starts were a combined -31. Chris Heston (-16) and Roenis Elias (-12) being the big missteps of the week.

Conclusion:  Both the lineup and the pitching staff were bad so its hard to find one particular thing to point to and say, hey, if I fix that, I can roll into next year with a better team. Then again, I didn't start playing in earnest til Wednesday, so perhaps, next year, don't wait til the middle of the week to start playing.

FINAL LEAGUE STANDINGS
RANK	TEAM		REC	PF	PA	PF/G			PA/G	DIFF
1	Team TUNNEY		14-8	7889	7156	358.6			325.3	+33.3
2	Team Margot		12-10	8139	8494	370.0			386.1	-16.1
3	Team WhoDats		13-9	8620	8026	391.8			364.8	+27
4	Atlantic City Sharks		16-6	9075	8109	412.5			368.6	+43.9
5	The New York Metropolitans		10-11-1	7705	7815	350.2			355.2	-5
6	Veracruz Posse		12-10	8156	8004	370.7			363.8	+6.9
7	Team Virginia		9-13	7588	7734	344.9			351.5	-6.6
8	Space Wranglers		8-12-2	7666	8007	348.5			364.0	-15.5
9	Team Habs		8-13-1	7696	8110	349.8			368.6	-18.8
10	Team timotswan		6-16	7304	8383	332.0			381.0	-49

Phighting Irrelevance: to 2016 or to not 2016

Much has changed (finally) over the course of another brutual brutual season my longsufferingest.  (And lets's be honest, there's still a lot of change to come) The change has ranged from unexpected, (hello Ryne Sandberg throwing away any chance of ever managing in the majors again) to heartbreaking, (Chase Utely, you will always be the man) to necessary (god speed and good riddance to Jonathan "the posting uppingest" Papelbon - Go suck the winner's soul out of somebody else's championship dreams there buddy).

It's so weird seeing them in blue

Cole Hamels was rightly flipped for a King's ransom, and Ruben was finally released from his burning tower.  Perhaps most importantly, once again (as the team did in 2006) the ownership sought a voice from outside the organization (this is good wonderful news Philly fan), Andy McPhail, to be chief bloodletter as the team goes through the pains of the rebuilding process.

Interim turned full-time manager Pete Mackanin becomes a remarkably important and interesting character in this, the first chapter of transition.  Having lived on the fringes of pro baseball for 45 years both as a player and a coach, MacKanin just might have the right underdog's sense of humor and grit to guide a young, eccentric group through some difficult growing pains.  He's passed the eye-test as the team played a winning brand of hustle and heart baseball for long stretches after the all-star break.

This is all great news, you're saying, but when are the Phillies going to be good again, you say, Andy MacPhail can't hit 50 homeruns from the four hole, you say, and play gold glove 2nd base and center field, you say. Pete MacKanin can't magically summon three or four starting pitchers-you silly goose, you're saying- to fill out a rotation.

Yes, slightly hsyterical and sarcastic Philly fan, your logic is as always, impeccable. Truly, executives at the age of 65 can't dominate the playing fields at the the highest level of professional baseball or field two positions simultaneously, and you are correct again in noting that the manager Pete McKanin is indeed not an all-powerful warlock capable of conjuring flesh and blood from the secret invisible magic ethers of the universe but simply a human man.

Hey Charlie,..Got any more of that secret universe juice? er..ahh.ether?

Well...

Well, I'm taking note of your sincere doubt and misplaced anger and well, ignoring it completely and focusing on the possible next nucleus.  Focusing on what the next championship team is going to look like.  It feels a bit like 2003 all over again.

There's reason for hope here dearest Phillies fan.  Amidst the stink and debris that was 2015, (woah, careful there, when you move around Cliff Lee's tarnished aura, you have to watch out for Ryan Howard's broken swing), but here look some kid named Brock Stassi was leading the double A phillies on deep run into the playoffs.  And that double A team is loaded!

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has the look of the real thing (6-2, 80.4% LOB, 3.58 xFIP) and  Odubel Herrera (3.9 WAR) and Maikel Franco (128 wRC+) blossomed into serious everyday starters.

This guy just won the Eastern League MVP and he plays for the Phillies!

The Fightin's are close is what we mean to say, and we'll walk you through the entire depth chart to show you how close (or far) the Phillies might be to contending in 2016.

C'mon MAN! A civilized retort to a Bill Baer critique

Before you read this post, most beloved reader, you should probably read Mr. Baer's post first.

Mr. Baer veers unintentionally into a national debate

Oh good you came back.  Yes, yes, I know the writing over there is amazing.  The articles articulate and well-researched.  And that GIF thing they do over there is really cool.
I know.

They way they seem to effortless mesh saber-metrics with scouting reports and present all that information with a precision and succinctness that makes you wonder if they have an understanding of their place in the universe and probably yours too that you most likely will never fathom?

Yeah, I got that too.

Oh, and you thought they had a better sense of humor over there as well.

Whatever.

But you read the post?

I was shocked to see such a strangely and completely off target piece as well.  Mr. Baer is usually so in tune, so centered.

Oh, you agreed with him.

Well, let me assert a few things first and then circle around a bit before my big finish.

1. First and worst of all, Mr Baer, you dropped the straight white male bomb. In an article criticizing sexists attitudes you come off as, well, sadly, and I say this with love and respect, brother, you come off as sexists and just the tiniest teeniest bit mean. Dude.  It's ironic when you argue against generalizing whilst generalizing (macho be a man culture - straight white male) - a call to to conversation while posting an article that cannot be commented on.  

2. Secondly, you're attacking a vernacular that you paint as venomous and violent though you don't make any connections to support those assertions other than saying, like a parent to a small child, it's true because I say it's true  - a Wikipedia page about the issue in sports (not baseball, and not in particular the Phillies - you're just slinging mud, here Bill) and a link to an article about the general issues involved in the suffrage of the LGBT don't count as proof of your charge.

It's just a manner of speaking Bill.  Flip the switch and there are also any number of masculine pejoratives that fit your into your misguided argument as well.  IE: Dont be a dick - meaning don't be so overly masculine, quit using that usually crude or inappropriately aggressive behavior.  Negative masculine qualities.   It's a crude and colorful manner of speaking but it doesn't rise to the level of offensive (unless you want to be offended) by any stretch of the imagination, particularly the two instances which you present as evidence of an organization wide social, sexual and cultural bias.

3. Finally, let's address the most glaringly obvious problem with your article. Simply, it's a matter of physics and biology, girls don't throw as hard as boys.  Except when they do (Thank-you MO'NE DAVIS!!!!), and when they do, we as a society celebrate every single performance.

Why do celebrate those performances.  Because, we know it's rare.  Because we know it's special and we might never get to see it again.

Because for the most part, girls don't throw as hard as boys.

So, specifically, this is for you Bill.

Saying that you throw like a girl is not offensive to girls (and certainly has nothing to do with the attitudes that lead to domestic violence as you so horribly and nimbly and evilly imply), it's offensive to the guy who throws like a girl.

If, in 100 years, women have taken over baseball and are throwing 110 to 115 mph, telling a player she throws like a man will have the same implications of poor form and low velocity.

The next righteous cause for murder and incarceration?

In conclusion, Mr. Baer,  might I suggest that if you wanted to nail the Phillies for some sort of controversial social injustice, then why not go after something that approaches the threshold of worthwhile.  Chase Utley's charity donations to an animal organization. I mean really, how much more privileged, how much more narcissistic can you get than giving your money to your pets and calling it charity.  Than lumping yourself in with people who hate people, and a burgeoning terrorists movement.

(I love you the way you play the game, Chase, but Jaime Moyer registers on human level, while you will remain forever a ballplayer.)
.
Sorry for the sideways rant there Bill.  Let's get back to it, shall we.

Honestly though, I don't imagine any gay man or transvestite coming across a story about the Phillies and their rookies in women's dresses, stopping and saying to himself (or herself), oh gosh, now I'll NEVER be accepted by society.

Oh, and not for nothing but the Astros, a severely "modern" team by any estimation had their rookies dress up as female super-heroes.  So, c'mon man.

Domestic violence and discrimination of any kind are serious issues and as such, laying these behavior patterns at the feet of "straight white men" not only renders your argument absurd, but in a way, dilutes a  larger and much more nuanced and important conversation.

If you wish to engage in such a conversation, by all means, Mr. Baer.  But it must be a conversation, and conversations, by their very definition are inclusive.

Week twenty-four wrap-up (16-6): Playoff edition: flying too close to the sun and other weak explanantions for dropping the ball

TEAM MARGOT                       429
ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS      352

OF all the weeks of all the days of summer in all the ballparks why oh why must you implode in freaking Milwaukee in September oh rocket man Rosenthal!

Pitching staff sunk the ship.  Five players blew up for a combined -59 points and the staff overall posted a disastrous 130 total points.  King Felix was mediocre with 10 points and though my starter picks weren't awful, 9 of 14 posted 10+ starts, 4 of those 15+ but Adam Conley's 20 point start was the high water mark and a misstep midweek involving Cody Anderson (dropped him accidentally before his start - missed out on 17 points) lead to a panicked decision to start Ryan Weber the following day.  Boom, -23.

19 total points.  The bullpen, the vaunted bullpen, was indeed damaged beyond repair. I completely missed it. Unsurprisingly, Glen Perkins -11 and John Axeford +1, were terrible and bad.  Kinda surprising, both Ken Giles +4 and Jeurys Familia +6 blew saves and finished the week with mediocre totals.  Shocking possibly roster design shaking Trevor Rosenthal posts back to back losses AGAINST MILWAUKEE and finishes the week with a -20.

The line up performed like champions, posting a total of 222 points with the waiver wire pickups netting a +9 despite the bungled the midweek swap of Martinez for Desheilds, (dropping Martinez too early and missing out on 5 points.)  Starling Marte lead the way with 32 points, while 7 of other 13 regulars had 17+ point weeks.

And I might have had a shot if Team Margot doesn't go 11-1.  Lineup posts 213.  Gotta tip the cap sometimes.

Week Twenty-three wrap-up (16-6): Playoff Edition: Bye city baby; setting up in advance

Perkins seems to have pitched himself back into shape and I let the boys be boys and only grabbed my starters for the first day of the next round.

I'm 2-O against my opponent this upcoming week but neither win was particularly convincing. There don't look to be a whole lot of obvious starter decisions this week, so I'll have to look to be conservative.

I'm looking at a possible Victor Martinez for Delino Desheilds swap midweek.

In-Season Strategy: View from the Mountain: Now what?

So you got this far and your feeling pretty good about yourself but here's something to remember.  It's the playoffs.  Loose and you're done.

So with that in mind, here are some tips to take it home:

1. PLAY THE HOT BAT: Every point matters.  If you have a guy whose been in a monthlong slump, dump him.  The only exceptions are your core players.  Your Buster Posey, Mike Trout, and Nelson Cruz's of the world.  400+ point guys.  Everybody else, the Mike Moustakus's and Brandon Crawford's of the world are disposable at this point.

Look for guys who have been smoking the ball for the past 7 to 15 days (Mark Canha, Didi Gregorious, Martin Prado).  Guys just coming of the DL (Maikel Franco).  Look for platoon players, (Aramis Ramirez, Darin Ruf, Brandon Guyer) and don't be afraid to make changes mid-week based on series matchups.

2. PLAY THE WAIVER WIRE STARTERS WITH CAUTION:  Rookies wear down at the end of the season and veterans on bad teams tend to just play out the string.  Target mid-level starters who have been throwing the ball well and are pitching for a playoff contending team (Danny Duffy, Martin Perez, Hector Santiago).  Look at home and away splits (Drew Hutchinson comes to mind with his home and away numbers).  Look for safe veteran plays, guys who may not dominate, but don't get shellacked either (Brett Anderson, Tom Koehler, Jake Peavy).

3.  IF YOU HAVE A BIG ENOUGH LEAD ON SUNDAY, START PULLING YOUR PITCHERS:  If you are up 85 points at 3PM on Sunday and your opponent has one starter left, you might think about pulling any late pitching staff you have scheduled.  Remember every point counts and pitchers regardless of their success rate are inherently risky bets (you never know when a guy is going to have a bad or unlucky day).

4. GO WITH YOUR GUT: it's what got you here in the first place.  Don't overthink, second-geuss yourself.  It's akin to hesitation on the field.  Don't be afraid of failure, go big or go home play-maker.  Make your picks and stick with em.

Good Luck, Phillies fan

Week Twenty-Two Recap (16-6): Cue Evil Laughter, you just dominated the regular season

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  536
TEAM MARGOT                   348


Lineup: 222 and rolling along.  Just keep rolling baby.

Pitching staff: 314.  Ending on a high note (but still only six closers).

Conclusion:  Still not sure if I want to roll through playoffs with all three starters as that will severely limit my lineup flexibility on off days.  Picking up Glen Perkins to finalize bullpen and depending on how he comes off the DL will determine the number of starters I carry.

Week Twenty-One Recap (15-6): Ok, so its time to drink the cool-aid, make some more, drink that, make some more, put it in a gatorade bucket and go find yourself an inconspicuous spot behind the coach and wait for the final countdown.

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   364
TEAM TIMOSWAN                263



Lineup Moves:  Added Ender Inciarte, kept Chase Utley, and moved Delino Deshields to the outfield in what feels like a final set of lineup adjustments.  The boys posted a robust 226, without any off-day Waiver wire help and with 3 players posting sub five performances.

The Lineup as currently constructed looks like this.

C Buster Posey - drafted #29
*1B Kendrys Morales - undrafted/ FA pickup April 13th
2B Robbie Cano - drafted #12
3B Kyle Seager - drafted #52
*SS Brandon Crawford - undrafted/FA pickup May 21st
*2B/SS Ben Zobrist - drafted #141/FA pickup May 14th
1B/3B Anthony Rendon - drafted #32
OF Mookie Betts - drafted #49
*OF Starling Marte - drafted #42/FA pickup April 20th
*OF Ender Inciarte - undrafted/FA pickup August 28th**
*OF Josh Reddick -undrafted/FA pickup April 29th
*OF Delino Deshields -undrafted/FA pickup July 29th**
*DH Chase Utley - drafted #93/FA pickup June 21st**

* Claimed off waivers
**waiver wire starter - date given is date added to regular lineup.

Pitching Moves:  Pitching staff was wretched although I pulled closers and a starter from the late games on Sunday, being up by over 80 points at that point already.  Bullpen was weak with only five saves and Aaron Nola got blown up by the Cubbies.  Overall the staff posted a completely unacceptable 138.


Conclusions:  The pitching staff is still a tweak away from where I want it to be and we're down to the wire here.  The lineup is ready to go! Woo!


Pitching Staff as currently constructed:

*SP Aaron Nola - undrafted/FA pickup July 19th
SP Felix Hernandez - drafted #9
*SP Lance McCullers -  undrafted/FA pickup August 21st

RP Trevor Rosenthal - drafted #72
*RP Jeurys Familia - undrafted/FA pickup April 8th
*RP John Axeford - undrafted/FA pickup August 30th
*RP Roberto Osuna - undrafted/FA pickup August 2nd
*RP Ken Giles - drafted #209/FA pickup July 28th
RP Kenley Jansen - drafted #112
*RP Glen Perkins - drafted 151/FA pickup September 13th

Week Twenty Recap (14-6): Just like you planned it. Finally!

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  450
TEAM VIRGINIA                   375



Lineup:  Added Chase Utley and brought back Delino Deshields for one more week.  Off Day starter posted a negligible +1, but the regular lineup put up 202 points as nine players hit 14+.

Pitching Staff:  Nola and King Felix were dominant (posting totals of 26 and 28 respectively), the bullpen was also dominant with 12 saves.  Waiver wire picks were mediocre or bad but the Unit overall scored 247 points.  Just like I designed it.

Conclusion:  Machine's up and running.  Just in time for the playoffs.

Cross those fingers and hope the injury bug doesn't take a chomp outta your season.

Week Nineteen Recap (13-6): Dancing with the Devil in the pale moonlight

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   379
SPACE WRANGLERS            337


Lineup Moves:  Added Delino Deshields for injured Christian Yelich to regular lineup with  -4 result.  Deshields struck out 11 times.  Waiver wire starters added a +7 but the regulars were just plain awful.  8 of 13 Regulars posted totals under 10 points.  In total the lineup struggled to score 149 points.


Pitching Moves:  Added Drew Pomeranz to bullpen, Lance McCullers to Rotation.  Unit was a tick off and posted a total of 230 points, going 5-5 with 8 saves.


Conclusions:  Still tinkering with the lineup, but I don't think it will ever be the dominant 200 point a week juggernaut like it was last year.  The Bullpen still doesn't feel quite set as Carson Smith has not locked down the closer's job and Pomeranz is a part of a closing committee.

Week Eighteen Recap (12-6): Luck be a Lady tonight!

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  362
TEAM TUNNEY                    333


Lineup:  Waiver Wire off-day starters posted a big fat zero while the regulars muddled through the week to the tune of 169.  Anthony Rendon posted a -2 and hasn't looked like 2014 Anthony Rendon yet.

Pitching: Both Felix Hernandez and Aaron Nola lost (Hernandez was obliterated -29, while Nola was just mediocre), and the Waiver Wire starters were hit (Hector Santiago 20, Drew Hutchinson 22) or miss (Eduardo Rodriguez -14, Brett Anderson -16).  Fortunately the bullpen was dominant again with 12 saves.  Overall the staff posted a severely disappointing but somehow just enough 193 for the week.

Conclusions: Sometimes you just get lucky.

Week Seventeen Recap (11-6): So then it's definitely going to be the bullpen.

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   486
VERACRUZ POSSE                341


Lineup moves:  Off day Waiver Wire starters put a nice little +10 to go along with the regulars popping off for 227.  Delino Deshields, who has the look of a possible fill-in starter, put up 9 points in 3 starts.

Pitching Moves:  Added Ken Giles, Alex Wilson and Roberto Osuna to bullpen.  Initial results were fantastic as bullpen posted 17 saves.  King Felix and Aaron Nola were solid with 41 points, however, had another off week picking starters and overall the staff posted a solid 249 points, going 5-8.

Conclusions:  Giles and Osuna are going to be top 5 closers.  In addition to Rosenthal, Familia, and Jansen, I may have acquired the best five closers in the game.  Carson Smith seems to have rebounded although if someone offers a trade... and Alex Wilson doesn't really pass the eye test, so the bullpen will still need monitoring as the season winds down.

Week Sixteen Recap (10-6): Total systems failure; to reboot or rebuild

TEAM HABS                             407

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS     293

Nothing worked this week obviously.  The revamped lineup produced a weak 166 points, despite a strong +14 contribution from the Off Day Waiver Wire starters.  Victor Martinez, Robbie Cano, Maikel Franco and Christian Yelich all posted sub 10 point performances.

The bullpen completely imploded this week, posting totals of -29 (John Axeford), -1 (Jeurys Familia), -19 (Carson Smith), -7 (Jason Motte) for a total of -59 points.  Tough to overcome without frontline starters and while my waiver wire picks were decent, King Felix and Aaron Nola combined for 9 points.  

Conclusion:  More and radical bullpen change or a complete shift of philosophy to a starter heavy staff?

I'm leaning towards trying to replace parts in the bullpen, rather than a complete overhaul.  Seems too late in the season to switch horses anyhow.

Pitching Staff as currently constructed:

SP Felix Hernandez

SP Aaron Nola

RP Trevor Rosenthal

RP Kenley Jansen

RP Jeurys Familia

RP John Axeford

RP Jason Motte

RP Carson Smith

RP Joakim Soria

Week Fifteen Recap (10-5): All-star shimmy. Just make it green, baby

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  586
VERACRUZ POSSE               560




Lineup Moves:  Kept Christain Yelich on as regular dropping the oft injured Josh Harrison.  Yelich is having a down year, but has good stats over the past month and looks like he could put up numbers similiar to last year.  Off day Waiver wire starters posted a decent +22 with David Murphy doing the most damage 18 in 4 starts.

Pitching Moves: Added Aaron Nola to regular rotation with solid results (30 points in two starts).  Added Jason Motte to bullpen with mostly positive results (14).

Conclusions:  Lineup is SET, baby.  Regulars posted 300+ points, albeit in the expanded timeframe, still a very satisfying performance.  Cano seems to finally be coming around and Franco is still tearing the cover off the ball.

Pitching staff is still in flux though.  Adding Nola to the regular rotation should help to stabilize the day to day cliff jumping exercise.  Bullpen needs a bit of work.  Overall the staff posted a respectable 266, going 10-6 with six saves in an expanded 18 starts.


Pitching Staff as currently constructed:

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Aaron Nola

RP Trevor Rosenthal
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Jeurys Familia
RP Joakim Soria
RP John Axeford
RP Carson Smith
RP Jason Motte

The All Star Boogie: Sandberg, Frenchin' and the flight of the fingerbird

balance between kickin ass and hugging and Sandberg never seemed to find it.  It's possible that behind closed doors and not in the dug out, or in the any public or private place where someone other than the players could see and interact with him that Ryno was a warm, generous soul who inspired confidence and focus.  Unlikely, but maybe

Week Fourteen Recap (9-5): Winning is just more fun, but..

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS            391
NEW YORK METROPOLITANS   289


Lineup moves:  Off day waiver wire pickups did nothing.  Literally.  They posted a cumulative zero.  Josh Harrison injured again added Christian Yelich.  Overall, the group posted an uninspiring 177.

Pitching moves:  Waiver wire picks were awful this week as starters posted a combined 2-7 record.  Bullpen picked up the slack for the most part with 16 saves as the group overall posted a pedestrian 214.

Conclusion:  Its time to take a hard look at the roster design and perhaps make a few tweaks.  King Felix has been severely up and down and in a week like this one, if he would have pitched poorly, your looking at a possible 40 point swing.  Perhaps adding another frontline (or number #2) talent to the pitching staff might offset a poor week from the King.

Adding another starter, however, will limit roster flexibilty and really cut down on off day lineup opportunities.

Food for thought.


SOME Names to consider adding to the rotation:

Aaron Nola - he's been as advertised in the minors and should be pitching in the Bank any day now.  Might be worth a look his first time through the league.

Lance McCullers - another rookie, but this guy has frontline starter stuff and is playing for what looks like a division champ.  Lots of K's.  Check.  Good shot at the W.  Check and check.

Louis Severino - this guy is going to be great.  96+ fastball with crazy movement and a swing and miss combo of change and curve.  Cashman has been quoted as saying this guys "untouchable" so I'm thinking with all of the Yankees starting pitching problems, he very well could be pitching in the bigs this year.

Stephen Matz - if he's still available, this big left-hander might be the best of that group of young, fireballing starters the Mets are collecting.  Oh, did I mention he's a left-hander and pitching in Citi-Field.

Week Thirteen Recap (8-5): How the mighty have fallen... WHAT! So get back up.. It's get back up time.

TEAM MARGOT                      434
ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS     409


IT ain't over til the fat lady sings and I don't hear no singing, do you?

Lineup and Pitching Staff still a hair away from utter domination again.

Week Twelve Recap (8-4): Can't keep a good man down, bounce back city baby

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  434
TEAM TIMOSWAN               359


Lineup Moves;  Off day Waiver-wire starters payed off huge with a +27 (thank-you Curtis Granderson) while the regulars played better than usual.  Overall, the group posted a very satisfying 218 points.

Pitching Moves:  Still a tick off with only six solid closers, the waiver wire picks were scary (5 starts of -5 or more) to spectacular this week (Mike Montgomery and his 51 point shutout - thank-you very much) and the group posted not horrible, but not super 220.

Conclusions:  Both the lineup and the pitching staff still feel just a tick off.  Considering adding another starter to the roster.

Week Eleven Recap (7-4): Turning the corner, line-up ready to roll

TEAM VIRGINIA                   450          
ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   411


Lineup moves:  Victor Martinez came off the DL last week and plugging him in alongside the rest of my waiver wire snags and the lineup looks like it just might be turning a corner.   They posted a healthy 238 points.  Can you say DOMINANT.  baby.

The lineup now looks like this:

C Buster Posey  - drafted #29
*1B Kendrys Morales - undrafted/FA pickup April 13th
2B Robbie Cano - drafted #12
3B Kyle Seager - drafted #52
*SS Brandon Crawford - undrafted/FA pickup May 21st
SS/2B Anthony Rendon - drafted #32
*1B/3B Maikel Franco - undrafted/FA pickup June 3rd
*OF Starling Marte - drafted #42/FA pickup April 20th
OF Mookie Betts - drafted #49
*OF Ben Zobrist - drafted #141/FA pickup May 14th
*OF Josh Reddick -undrafted/FA pickup April 29th
*OF Josh Harrison - drafted #154/FA pickup May 15th
*DH Victor Martinez -drafted #50th/FA pickup May 28th

Pitching Moves:  Joakim Soria looks like he's about to loose his job and Jason Grilli hit the DL.  The staff put up a sorry 173 with the waiver wire pickups being so-so (10-3) but the bullpen had a rough week and being down to five closers posted only 6 saves.  Fixable for sure but annoying.

Conclusions;  The roster is almost there.  Lineup feels just about set (depending on how long Franco stays hot and whether Martinez hits this year), I just need another two solid-to-a-squidge above average closers.

Week Ten Recap (7-3): Regression to the mean is mean.

SPACE WRANGLERS            352

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   308

Lineup Moves:  Added Super Rookies Maikel Franco (Pronounced Fronk-oh) and Byron Buxton with mixed results (Franco posted 15, Buxton 0) off-day Waiver wire starters posted a +7 but couldn't overcome lack of a true big time bat.  Lineup posted a weak 168 points.

Lineup now looks like this:

C Buster Posey

1B Kendrys Morales

2B Robbie Cano

3B Kyle Seager

SS Brandon Crawford

2B/SS Anthony Rendon

1B/3B Maikel Franco

OF Starling Marte

OF Josh Reddick

OF Mookie Betts

OF Ben Zobrist

OF Byron Buxton

DH Josh Harrison

Pitching Moves: 140 points.  Athough the 6-7 with 12 saves line doesn't look that bad, obviously, the pitching staff blew up this week.  King Felix posted a -26 and the waiver wire picks were for the most part uninspiring.

Conclusions:  My girlfriend is moving to Sante Fe and I can't go with her.  It sucks and has absolutely nothing to do with baseball, but its on my mind and probably effecting my picks.  Fear not, loyal reader, the roster design is still solid despite two poor performances in a row.

Week Nine Recap (7-2): Like a snail on a straight razor...The horror, the horror.. The horror that is my lineup

TEAM TUNNEY                       410

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS     358

Lineup Moves:  Off day waiver wire pickups at +3 couldn't make up for Robbie Cano (-1) Kendry Morales (7) Kyle Seager (3) and Mookie Betts (6) combining for less than 15 points.

The tire fire burns on....

Pitching Moves;  Up and down week with the high man being a closer (Trevor Rosenthal) at 31 points.  Staff posted disappointing 225 going 7-6 with 10 saves.

Conclusions:  Have begun to read Robbie Cano articles from 2008 when Canu hit .211 before the All-Star break, before going on to hit .324 the rest of the way and finish the season at .271 with Cano'ish power and counting stats.

Week Eight Recap (7-1): It's time to start working on that evil laugh of yours, the one where you laugh evilly as you stand over your broken and helpless as a newborn kitten opponent, AFTER YOU'VE THROWN THE SWITCH.. THE LAUGH AND THE SPEECH AFTER you destroy the world.. oh, ahem, King Felix and the Legion of doom strike again.

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS  500
TEAM WHODATS                 406

Lineup Moves: Missed out on the Carlos Correa pickup.  Was at work when the Astros promoted him.  Lineup was weak link again at 166.  Off day starter waiver wire pickup posted mediocre +5.  Made major moves (Dropped Castro, Fowler, Boegarts, Davis) to lineup late in the week that didn't payoff in this matchup, but should pay off as early as next week.

Lineup now looks like this.

C Buster Posey
1B Kendrys Morales
2B Robbie Cano
3B Kyle Seager
SS Ben Zobrist
SS/2B Brandon Crawford
1B/3B Ryan Howard
OF Josh Reddick
OF Starling Marte
OF Mookie Betts
OF Josh Harrison
OF Yasmany Tomas
DH Evan Gattis

Pitching Moves:  Felix threw another shutout and the staff overall posted an unbelievable 334 points, going 10-3 with 14 saves.

Conclusions:  Although the waiver wire pick ups have tended be a little dramatic on a day to day basis, the end results have been typically been right around the 250 point watermark with the potential for 300+.

The lineup continues to be frustrating, but with Anthony Rendon coming off the DL soon and Brandon Crawford hitting homeruns, there's still hope that I can salvage a disastrous draft.

Week Seven Recap (6-1): Come back swinging - the story of AWESOME!

ATLANTIC CITY SHARKS   431
TEAM HABS                           294



Lineup Moves;  No major moves YET.  Played the waiver wire for off day starters fairly well at a +25, but lineup still only posted 188 total points.  Strongly considering just playing week to week waivers for middle infeild slots.  Attempting trades, ect.

Some names to consider:

Brandon Crawford has streaks where he hits like Troy Tulowitski for four or five weeks and he's got that look right now.

Tori Hunter.  Hunter's hitting like its 2005.  Looks like a comeback of the year candidate.

Carlos Correa.  He's gonna make the league look stupid when he gets there. Currently OPSing at 1.185 in AA after 1.007 last year in high A.  Oh, did I tell you.  And he plays shortstop.  On top of that OPS steal you 25 bases a year.

Pitching Moves:  Kyle Hendricks posted a complete game shutout worth 49 points.

Conclusions:  The pitching staff was excellent again posting 243 points and weathering waiver wire blowups of -27 and -14.  Overall the staff went 6-4 with 10 saves.  The lineup is becoming a bit off a concern.  I don't have a legitimate power threat.