Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in 2016, my dearest and most skeptical of all the fanbases in fandom, is that the pitching staff could be and should be remarkably better than the group of retreads and 2nd year starters that began the 2015 season. Of course, MacPhail, Profrock and the mystery GM need to have a baller off-season, but, for the first time in a long time, the Phils have money to burn and lucky for them, the Free Agent pitching market is stacked for the next two years, both at home and abroad.
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| We shall gather in joy again soon, my most passionate baseball brothers and sisters |
I see that skeptical yet adorable frown, dearest Phillies fan. I'm well aware that we're trudging neck deep through, well, hypotheticals, but the idea that the Phillies might be capable of playing a winning brand of baseball by mid-June next season isn't as far-fetched as you think.
THE PIECES IN PLACE:
Starting Rotation
The Phillies have some real bonafide talent to build around mixed in with some obvious and serious depth problems. Not the complete worst of problems to have (having aging talent that is about to fall off a performance cliff though you have no idea that your a) talent is human and susceptible to effects of injury and time, especially a combination of the two and b) you spend a bunch of money to keep those aging arms about to fall off, achilles about to snap, knees about to buckle talent - that would be a worse problem to have, wouldn't you agree?)
Thinking that you have something whilest having nothing vs. having nothing and knowing you have nothing. SEE? AKA wearing your Ruben Amaro Jr shades, versus looking at the team in the harsh, cold light of well, daylight. Or any light really.
Having such obvious holes allows the Phillies braintrust to see clearly and laser in on definitive roster upgrades. And because of a bloated market and the walking dead being released, traded or beheaded, the Phillies are now flush with cash and can and should upgrade now rather than later. Nola, Eickhoff and Morgan, while none of these three project to be an ace, they are all young, cheap, above average pitchers. Remember, Remember the parade in October.
The Fightin's never won it all with Doc and Clifford, they beat the world with mostly a bunch of gritty #3 types. Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton. Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick. Yes, they had an ace, but it was only Cole's first full swing through the league; the curve and cutter were still years away. (Remember when he was just a two-pitch wunderkid). The rotation just needs to be solid, is all we're saying. With an ace on top.
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| He's got that winner's shine |
Aaron Nola:
PROJECTED #3 Starter
The 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Aaron Nola has been every bit the Michelangelo on the edges he was billed to be and he's turned out to be a pretty cool customer as well. After getting shellacked by the Mets in his fifth start, Nola came back and 2 hit the Padres for seven innings and then 3 hit the Marlins for eight innings.
If not a true number 1, some baseball insiders think Nola's plus makeup elevates his ceiling to a 1A or a Super 2 While we here at the forum tend to eschew hyperbole (NO WE DON'T!!!), Nola's bewitching pitch dance to either side of the plate, and just plain grit, are a reason to think the Phillies might have something special here.
Nonetheless, Nola is going to have some struggles in 2016. He pitches in the strikezone and doesn't have overwhelming stuff. There might be stretch or two where it looks like he's tossing BP up there, and honestly, depending on how Nola, like many of the young players on this list, makes his way through those stretches will largely determine what kind of pitcher the Phillies really have on their hands.
We project a 14-10 guy with an ERA right around 3.75.
Jerad Eikhoff
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| Had back to back 10k performances |
Projected #4 Starter
Eickhoff, a 25 year old right-hander with a big frame and long smooth delivery, was drafted by Texas in the 15th round of the 2011 draft. Largely unheralded, the Indiana native had a mostly up and down run through the minors posting a career 4.14 ERA, 1.211 WHIP and weakish 7.4 SO/9. However, in 2014, Eickoff might have had a 'eureka' season. Though he posted a mediocre 4+ ERA, a deeper look into the numbers reveals a career best 8.4 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 1.173 WHIP over just about 160 innings. Projected as a backend of the rotation or bullpen guy before and during the trade, Eickhoff's 11 starts since being traded to the Phils have been eye-opening.. Not only has Eickhoff continued to pitch to his 2014 numbers but he has been better in the bigs, posting a 2.3, 8.6 walk and strikeout per nine rate alongside a miserly 1.039 WHIP.
Nice numbers for sure, you say, but SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!! Jerome Williams had shiny numbers for eight starts and that turned out horribly. HORRIBLY, you say. Which is true and Williams was indeed so scary bad this year that MacKanin banished him to the clubhouse (bullpen) only to be summoned when no one in the ball park was looking (blow-outs).
There are a lot of differences here but the main one is simple. Williams was old when the Phillies picked him up (32) and coming off three consecutive seasons of 6+ ERA's.
Eickoff on the other hand is young (25) and though he has some obvious problem areas he needs to work on, those problems (his fastball location as well as the break and tilt of his changeup) are fixable. With the right usage and coaching, Eickoff might be an above average #4 right now with a ceiling as high as a solid #3.
Look for 18+ Quality Starts in 2016 from the Cole Hamels "throw-in". A half dozen or so really special starts, maybe an eight to ten game run like the one we just saw, but expect Eickoff to post an ERA just a tick over or under 4. The fastball is extremely hittable and lefties are going to be a problem until he develops his change-up.
Adam Morgan
PROJECTED #5 Starter
A big-time prospect not so long ago, Morgan was drafted by Ruben in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. A rotator cuff knocked the wirey left-hander off the prospect radar and well, quite frankly, he just didn't pitch that well when he came back. Ok, truth be told, we don't particularly care for Adam Morgan (not as a starter), and a glance over his minor league career and the statline he put up in 2015 and there's not a whole lot to love. Sorry bud, but a fly-ball pitcher, with so-so strikeout stuff doesn't do a whole lot for us.
There is a silverish lining, however. Though Morgan doesn't throw very hard, he changes speeds well on all of his pitches, has a nice three pitch mix and locates well (or not at all, in which case he throws his not very fast kinda straight fastball right smack dab down the middle of the plate - in 20% of his starts he gave up 5 runs+).
Oh right, silver lining.
He does seem to have a grit and grind to him though, and he's tough with men on base (71.6% LOB).
Finally, the left-hander bounces back well from bad starts (six innings of four hit ball against the Padres after the 4 homerun bludgeoning by the Mets). This pitchability, the poise (even when he was getting shellacked, Morgan seemed calm and cool) right now will usually get you through 6 innings and at 25 years old, Morgan's still got some upside.
8 of his 15 first big league starts have been Quality Starts, good for 53%. The league average is 50%. It would be nice to shift Morgan to the bullpen (where he belongs and where not for nothing, the control and three pitch mix and poise would really play up - velocity would probably tick up as well) but having Morgan at the back end of the rotation isn't bad way to go either. We predict Morgan has a Randy Wolf-esqe season in 2016, 12-10, 4.17 ERA, 16+QS.
Or, perhaps as a final act of roster savaging, the kid's arm falls off during a start in mid May. Somewhere in the distance, Ruben Amaro Jr. laughing, sad, the vanquished, setting fire to the building as he goes.
ORG DEPTH
There's an old baseball adage that you need a starting 8 to get through the rigors of a full 162 game season and as such we take a look at the names that are probably going to make 20 to 30 starts in 2016.
Alec Asher - AAA What you see is what you get. (And we saw it). Phils need to upgrade here
Matt Harrsion - DL - You may not remember, but Matt Harrison pitched some big games for some good Rangers teams back in the 00's. A serious longshot (back injuries and tall pitchers don't usually make for good comeback stories) but Harrison is only 30 and an All-star as recently as 2012, it wouldn't be completely surprising for the salary dump guy to roll out of spring training with the big league club. Probably in that scenario, the number two guy. Keep an eye on this big left-hander's progress in spring training.
David Buchanon AAA- Buchanon pitched well for stretches in 2014 but the wheels came off in 2015. Pray to the baseball gods that Buchanon starts the year (and stays) in AAA
Severino Gonzalez AAA - Gonzalez is an interesting player to keep an eye on if only to pray that his name doesn't show up on the 25 man roster. While still young, 23, Severino was obviously and horrifically overmatched in his 7 big league starts. Glance over his minor league stats and you see he's been kinda horrific for a few years now. Phils need to upgrade here as well.
Jake Thompson AAA - Thomson's a name that you're going to hear a lot over the coming winter. A lot. A Hard throwing righty, this guy could be an in-house upgrade, bolstering the triple A rotation and providing 10 to 15 starts late in the year.
Franklyn Kilome AA - Another hard throwing righthander that you're going to hear a lot about over the coming winter. Kilome looked a little green to us, and probably won't crack the big league rotation in 2016, but he might be an interesting ace in the hole type option out of the bullpen ala 2014 Brandon Finnegan.
WHAT THE PHILLIES NEED
Obviously, MacPhail and Co amongst the myriad of other holes in the roster, need to find a way to either sign or trade for two top of the rotation types. Guess what Phillies fan!
The free agent market is loaded!! For the next two years!!!
The Phillies also still have a few tradeable assets left (Darin Ruf, Dominic Brown, Carlos Ruiz) but my guess is that the mystery GM targets 2nd tier types and 2nd tier types coming off injury plagued years or bounce back candidates.
Chris Young, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, ect. Smart two-year contract guys with a solid floor and a maybe little bit of ceiling. Hopefully, the days of John Lannan and Chad Billingsley, Jerome Williams, ect are behind us.
OUR PROJECTED 2016 STARTING ROTATION
1. Hisashi Iwakuma/Jeff Smardszija
2. Matt Latos/Brett Anderson/JA Happ
3. Aaron Nola
4. Jarad Eickhoff
5. Adam Morgan
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