He is not who we thought he was - or is he? Un-confusing maverick third baseman Maikel Franco or not

For half a season, three years ago in 2015, just a few games past the point that the Phillies became unwatchable dreck, Maikel Franco came out of nowhere and smoked the ball for 80 games.  Posted 14 homeruns, with a .840 OPS on a team obviously throwing in the proverbial towel.  The swing was long and the throwing motion behind the bag looked a little funky, but the kid didn't strike out as much as you might think, and when Franco really got a hold of one, his bat made this incredible, undeniable sound.

Ryan Howard's bat made a sound a bit like that.  Like a peal of thunder.

OF course, early on, when we were still trying to figure out what he was and if watching him develop was worth the pain of watching a team in free fall, there were overly exuberant comparisons made to guys like Adrian Beltre and yes, Albert Pujols (which is crazy, by the way, just crazy).  Nonetheless, 1.9 WAR in half a season, a 130 OPS+ and the viciousness of his swing were all things to dream on.

And then 2016 happened. .255/.301/.427 and bad in the field (-0.4 dWAR), and bad on the bases (-1.9 BsR).  And then 2017 was an extension of 2016 with even worse luck (.230 baBip) and really no one watched the Phillies in 2017.

Here, now in 2018, even though the bat still holds thunder and Franco still swings from his heels, you might be wondering if Franco was ever really all that good in the first place.  IF he's the guy we want manning the hot-corner with wunderkid Scott Kingery on the 25 man roster.

Franco's numbers as of the writing of this post (.241/.292/.706) track pretty closely with his career averages.  To the eye, he looks about the same as he always has.  Mostly just a tick or two off, pulling worm-killer after worm-killer to the third base side.  There are still flashes of brilliance, the two games against Miami very early on, the game in Atlanta.  The problem is Franco collected 7 of his 14 hits in those three games and all of his extra base hits (5).  He's been in 18 games.

The Phillies are 14 and 7.  They haven't played a whole lot of games against what you might call, "good" teams, but winning is winning.  They're 9-1 at home and people are getting excited.  This year's team, not next year's, or the 2020 team might be making the post-season and as we have learned in the recent past: in the playoffs, crazy weird-ass shit can and usually does happen, so don't waste your appearances on upgrades next year.

So who the heck is this Maikel Franco guy, really.  Really really?

Right.  First off, what Maikel Franco is not.  While it is true that Maikel Franco's SO and BB rates are eerily similar to young Adrian Beltre's, those two stats are where the similarities end.  Beltre's base-running, defense and overall athleticism far surpass Franco's.  Which not a dig on Maikel, it was a ridiculous comparison then and it's a ridiculous comparison now.

Also, obviously, Franco is not Albert Pujols.  Lets' just leave it at that and move on.

So who is this freaking guy and is he gonna help the team or what, right?

Wethinks he is, has and will, dearest impatientest Philly fan.

First off, the defense does look a little better than 2015 and '16.  In fact a quick glance at Franco's defensive metrics and you'll see he's made some small improvements.  To the eye: Franco seems to be more comfortable.  The throws seem more confident more urgent, less like Spongebob tossing bubbles.  He still looks a long ways off from a Gold Glove, however.  Solid might be a more realistic ceiling.

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Year	Age	G	Fld%	Rtot	Rdrs	Rdrs/yr	RF/9	RF/G	lgFld%	lgRF9	lgRFG
2014	21	12	.975	5	1	11	3.31	3.25	.962	2.52	2.51
2015	22	75	.944	-12	-8	-14	2.28	2.24	.955	2.46	2.44
2016	23	148	.960	-1	-6	-6	2.20	2.14	.956	2.52	2.50
2017	24	144	.955	-2	-4	-4	2.29	2.21	.962	2.48	2.45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/28/2018.

Secondly, perhaps more importantly, Franco does have a unique offensive skill set and in an era of strikeouts, a power and contact combo can be enormously valuable.  Simply, Franco has the ability to take over a game and win it almost by himself.  The underlying issue for Franco has up to this point been pitch recognition and being overly aggressive (IE: also called "no plan at the plate").  This is where we think Franco has made some big strides.

He's seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year, 3.85, up from 3.74 last year and is hitting the ball consistently harder (91.8 mph) than in any other season we've seen from him.  While its' true that he's still being bitten by the .BAbip bugaboo, and average over .260 or .270 probably overly-optimistic, a line of .255/.310/.450 with 25 to 30 big flies is well within Franco's reach.

And as we said before, Franco is getting better.

What Maikel Franco is for this 2018 team is a solid defensive third-baseman and 6 or 7 hole hitter capable of reeling off 2 to 3 game spurts of brilliant offensive production.  And he's improving.  Think Pedro Feliz in 2008.  A Cody Ross type of player.  Not necessarily the franchise building block we were sold in 2015, but Rhys, Odubel and Santana can't carry the offense by themselves.

Take a macro whole lineup view.  A seven game series view.  Franco wins game 5 by himself and hits an important sac fly in game 1 or 2.  All the while, he is solid at third and works the pitchers. 5,6,7 pitch at bats.  That's value from the six hole in this lineup.

For Franco's season to be a success, he just has to be himself.  Pop off once or twice a week and keep improving.