Wednesday, September 16, 2015

In-Season Strategy: View from the Mountain: Now what?

So you got this far and your feeling pretty good about yourself but here's something to remember.  It's the playoffs.  Loose and you're done.

So with that in mind, here are some tips to take it home:

1. PLAY THE HOT BAT: Every point matters.  If you have a guy whose been in a monthlong slump, dump him.  The only exceptions are your core players.  Your Buster Posey, Mike Trout, and Nelson Cruz's of the world.  400+ point guys.  Everybody else, the Mike Moustakus's and Brandon Crawford's of the world are disposable at this point.

Look for guys who have been smoking the ball for the past 7 to 15 days (Mark Canha, Didi Gregorious, Martin Prado).  Guys just coming of the DL (Maikel Franco).  Look for platoon players, (Aramis Ramirez, Darin Ruf, Brandon Guyer) and don't be afraid to make changes mid-week based on series matchups.

2. PLAY THE WAIVER WIRE STARTERS WITH CAUTION:  Rookies wear down at the end of the season and veterans on bad teams tend to just play out the string.  Target mid-level starters who have been throwing the ball well and are pitching for a playoff contending team (Danny Duffy, Martin Perez, Hector Santiago).  Look at home and away splits (Drew Hutchinson comes to mind with his home and away numbers).  Look for safe veteran plays, guys who may not dominate, but don't get shellacked either (Brett Anderson, Tom Koehler, Jake Peavy).

3.  IF YOU HAVE A BIG ENOUGH LEAD ON SUNDAY, START PULLING YOUR PITCHERS:  If you are up 85 points at 3PM on Sunday and your opponent has one starter left, you might think about pulling any late pitching staff you have scheduled.  Remember every point counts and pitchers regardless of their success rate are inherently risky bets (you never know when a guy is going to have a bad or unlucky day).

4. GO WITH YOUR GUT: it's what got you here in the first place.  Don't overthink, second-geuss yourself.  It's akin to hesitation on the field.  Don't be afraid of failure, go big or go home play-maker.  Make your picks and stick with em.

Good Luck, Phillies fan

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